Happy Gudi Paadava / Ugadi to all
OI in Nifty futures hovering around 37 million within first 2 hours of open today; IMHO with expiry 4 trading sessions away, we should be able to see more OI in Nifty futures regardless of direction taken by Nifty; significant rationalization on futures premium finally.
Most likely, falls will be arrested in the 5177-5196 band or a shade lower at 5150-5166 i.e. the 200 DMA [50 as well as 100 EMAs have crossed over the 200 DMA and hence whilst the ultra-short term trend is down, the medium term trend seems to be on the upside - this is important from an investment point of view!!]
Breach of 5177-5196 band on closing basis will take down the support to 5032-5092 band and IMHO this should be a heavy bounce back zone; a close below 5032 will most likely trigger more falls and this may not happen in the next couple of weeks. Strength in Nifty to be confirmed only after taking out 5348 and then 5408 [2 consecutive closes above 5408 is the key for Nifty IMHO]
Likewise for BNF, strength only after 2 consecutive closes above 10400; weakness with 2 consecutive closes below 10150; interestingly both Nifty and BNF are not confirming strength/weakness on either side; 1 close in either direction is a false alarm usually and we have seen quite a bit of that this week
Just some images that I had prepared last night to fill in for Raghuji [though Im not in a position to put counts on minute degrees - that will have to wait for him to resume full throttle action after his much deserved vacation :D]
Illustration1: This is a continuation of the same image that I have been using since 28th Feb
OI in Nifty futures hovering around 37 million within first 2 hours of open today; IMHO with expiry 4 trading sessions away, we should be able to see more OI in Nifty futures regardless of direction taken by Nifty; significant rationalization on futures premium finally.
Most likely, falls will be arrested in the 5177-5196 band or a shade lower at 5150-5166 i.e. the 200 DMA [50 as well as 100 EMAs have crossed over the 200 DMA and hence whilst the ultra-short term trend is down, the medium term trend seems to be on the upside - this is important from an investment point of view!!]
Breach of 5177-5196 band on closing basis will take down the support to 5032-5092 band and IMHO this should be a heavy bounce back zone; a close below 5032 will most likely trigger more falls and this may not happen in the next couple of weeks. Strength in Nifty to be confirmed only after taking out 5348 and then 5408 [2 consecutive closes above 5408 is the key for Nifty IMHO]
Likewise for BNF, strength only after 2 consecutive closes above 10400; weakness with 2 consecutive closes below 10150; interestingly both Nifty and BNF are not confirming strength/weakness on either side; 1 close in either direction is a false alarm usually and we have seen quite a bit of that this week
Just some images that I had prepared last night to fill in for Raghuji [though Im not in a position to put counts on minute degrees - that will have to wait for him to resume full throttle action after his much deserved vacation :D]
Illustration1: This is a continuation of the same image that I have been using since 28th Feb
Illustration2: Nifty Moving Averages
2 comments:
Good illustrations Nagraj Thx.
Dear Nagi, Raghuji, Winwathji, Shreeji and all Nifty Paradox members & followers,
Happy Gudhi Padvaa and wishing your family a very happy new year.
Sai Prashant Hariharan
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