EOD Analysis For 8th June 2012 and Outlook For 11th June 2012

Was tied up with personal work yesterday and hence could not update the blog.

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 17-18 million mark. The fall today can just be attributed to routine profit booking to end the week. The rise has been pretty sharp and we need to see how things pan out; if we go back to the image of the Falling Wedge of Nifty / BankNifty, prices have almost touched the upper trendline [refer image below]

If prices pierce that line on the upside, then one can be sure that bulls will try to maximize the upside as much as possible. Else, the range bound moves in the falling wedge will continue for the next few sessions Must admit here that the rise beyond 5032 on closing basis has been a bit baffling, esp considering the negative divergence

Nifty

Nifty - Price + MACD [5,34,5] on 15 Minute Charts for 8th June '12

Prices are making new highs but MACD is making Lower Highs!!! This is more prominent if one plays the bars from Tuesday until today and cross-checks the MACD movement

BankNifty

From individual stocks, LnT has given a clean break-out from the downward trending channel it got into from the interim highs of Feb '11. Clearly in buy the dips mode to the extent it keeps closing above 1275 for T1 = 1350 / T2 = 1400 / T3 = 1450....IMHO of course

EOD Analysis For 6th June 2012 and Outlook For 7th June 2012

First of all, hats off to the bulls for today's show esp given the negativity for the last couple of sessions. Nevertheless, seems like we are reaching the end of an interim bull party for now [5032-5092 band is where the upside seems capped on closing basis - ref chart below] and bears also can just relax. The tug of war may continue in the 4800-5032 band [with tolerance upto 5092 on closing basis on upside and 4750 on downside]

There is nothing great that has happened today but just the nature of discounting the future in advance;
[EW counts help anticipate those moves in advance - courtesy Raghuji] If ECB comes up with a dovish stance today, the upside will try to hit the resistance and come back in all likelihood and it can be expected to be a non-event when it's 'Breaking News' on tv; if the hawkish stance goes on, most of the gains can be expected to be given up.

Charts for reference

Nifty

One more point to add regarding technicals here [highest weightage for 60 min charts]
Both 60 min and 5 min charts are showing negative divergence i.e. price is making new highs but MACD is making Lower Highs. [For the last 2 days it was the other way around!] 15 minute charts have not shown this feature yet. {Readings checked @ 14:53 IST today}

BankNifty

Last but not the least, hope some of you enjoyed the gains in Tata Motors; Longs were recommended around the 220 zone on spot price on Friday :D Good to book some partial profits and lock in some gains right???

EOD Analysis For 5th June 2012 and Outlook For 6th June 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around that 17 million mark and such volumes will not be able to sustain the upsides; BankNifty futures still going at discounts [this is the 5th week in a row with this feature]

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for Nifty and BankNifty; finer trading levels covered by Raghuji as usual.

I would encourage readers to go through the latest article by Nadeem Walayat on Euro-zone financial woes updated this weekend [just go to the The Market Oracle site link to which is available on this blog] Whilst some rhetorics are overdone in the article, overall, the Catch-22 situation has been well covered in the series of articles.

EOD Analysis For 4th June 2012 and Outlook For 5th June 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 17 million mark and VIX pretty high at 28 levels

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty; with a 35th close below the 5032-5092 band, safe to assume that this is the upside for June series on closing basis. On downside, remains to be seen how far we go but one may expect consolidation at current price levels for 2 weeks before starting any meaningful upside march from 20th June in all likelihood.