EOD Analysis For 20th July 2012 and Outlook 23rd July 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 27 million mark and VIX is surprisingly cool on major bourses at the moment at sub-18 levels

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty

Recap: 

Key Support level for Nifty @ 5032-5092 and congestion band of 5169-5177-5196

Key resistances at 5280-5348-5378-5408

Closing above 5408 or below 5032 can yield another 144 points in the same direction IMHO

For BankNifty, the key resistance level now is 10800 and support at 10400 

closing above or below that can yield another 200-250 points in the same direction

Aggressive traders can initiate shorts with a close below 10600 and longs with a close above 10650

[EOD/EOW illustrative charts will be updated over the weekend]

EOD Analysis For 18th July 2012 and Outlook For 19th July 2012

OI in Nifty futures marginally higher today at about 27.5 million but VIX is excessively cool.

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for Nifty and BankNifty and Sell on Rise mode is still active

Above 5280, bulls may take the upside a bit further but moving beyond 5348 on closing basis in July series can be a low probability outcome.

EOD Analysis For 17th July 2012 and Outlook For 18th July 2012

OI in Nifty futures still stable and VIX 'seemingly' under control.

Critical levels remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty

EOD Analysis For 16th July 2012 and Outlook For 17th July 2012

OI in Nifty futures marginally up at 27 million [Jul/Aug/Sep series together] but VIX is remarkably cool yet.

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from previous posts.

Quite a few of us in the Nifty blogosphere updated the Nifty / BankNifty charts on Daily / Weekly basis over the weekend and most are of the same opinion with of course some variations based on personal experience / interpetations

Bullish scenario: If 5032-5092 levels hold out in July series [5169-5177-5196 congestion range opined by some and they may be right] then we may have one more pending rally to the upside remaining before the downtrend resumes. [Closing below 5169, retesting 5032-5092 band is almost a certainty]

Bearish scenario: The tops may be in place and the major leg down may have commenced; the falls may not be severe initially but may get severe in August / September series if this scenario is in play
[Closing below 5032, another slide of 144 points down may be in the offering]