EOD Analysis For 17th February 2012 and Outlook For 21st February 2012

Positive global cues and a flush of liquidity from all over helping bulls defy gravity once again. OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 30 million mark and VIX hovering around 24;

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged

As long as 5177-5196 is intact, bears are in ICU and the bullish tsunami [this is undoubtedly a strong bullish tsunami from the lows of Dec'11] has steam. Breach of 5408 on closing basis can open another 144 points to the downside.
IMHO, 5408 is a very crucial level witnessed last year also; once breached convincingly on the upside on closing basis, does not give up so easily. Given the strength of the rally and the way the 5177-5196 has held firm for 14 sessions in a row now, IMHO this is the max downside on closing basis until 29th Feb '12 [unless some major bad news comes through]

The negative tinge for 20th Feb to 22nd Feb is open but I stand corrected with the word 'bearish'; just some retracement of the meteoric rise via profit booking.

Yet again, the weekly close has been stronger compared to the previous week; As far as possible, I avoid putting in my EW perspective as Raghuji and Wave Rider are pretty good in putting it all together with various scenarios. However, this weekend, I will put in my EW perspective by Sunday evening my time[in consultation with seniors as well] It will be a powerpoint slideshow that can be downloaded.

There is no perfect system and the relentless quest for finding that perfect system will only deter a trader from being consistent and applying the basic rules of trading [identify the trade, open positions with a hedge, and drop the losing leg after a certain threshold] If in doubt, stay out and don't open the trade - simple and easy [There is no rule that says trade everyday!!! That is a weakness a lot of human beings impose on themselves]


A Small Primer:

Some basic levels based on my limited experience of 16 months with Nifty and IMHO all trading in Nifty must make a note of these levels in their trading diaries

[I am ignoring the sub 4600 levels for now]

Set1: 4640-4690-4720-4750-4808-4840-4880
A close above 4880 opens Nifty for 144 points to the upside
A close below 4690 opens Nifty for 144 points to the downside
[The number 144 will be consistent at all critical levels; I just know it is a Fibbo number and for some reason it works; beyond that I have no logic to offer]

Set2:  4911-4944-4944
2 consecutive closes above 4944 opens Nifty for 144 points to the upside again

Set3: 5032-5092-5150 [There is a congestion band at 5169-5177-5196]
1 close above 5150 opens Nifty for another 144 points to the upside subject to volume and momentum [courtesy the congestion band mentioned]

Set4: 5225-5280-5348-5380-5408
5408 is a very very crucial level IMHO and close above/below this brings a lot of changes to Nifty; the importance gains more relevance on weekly/monthly basis

Set5: 5440-5480-5532-5580-5608-5655-5690

5408 to 5532 is a consolidation area on closing basis; once Nifty comes into this area, it tends to spend time gyrating here before assuming a definite direction

Set6: 5740-5780-5810-5850-5880-5944

5944 is the most crucial price level on closing basis for the upside. Once Nifty closes above 5944 on closing basis, it will zoooom and has 3 potential stops 6080-6180-6280. [Here, I need to thank a senior from mmb, MGUSA who very nicely explained and illustrated the importance of 5944 and now I realize the importance of that]

Beyond this is unchartered territory as we only have 2 price points 6338 and 6357. So even if one is not comfortable with all the jargon, just following these levels in sets above can make trading life simple. When spot price is above the mentioned level, the lower levels become support and when spot price is below the specific levels, they become resistances. [with a small tolerance of 20 points]

For those reading my blogs, leaving apart my personal bias and verbose commentary, these are the very levels that I always mention depending on price action - so far they have helped me. Just sharing the same with all of you as well.

What I have observed with myself and many people is that we don't take proper hedges - and we have an underlying psychological barrier that prompts us to think that our main position should end up as the winner; took me some time as well to come out of this mindset and was a costly learning experience in summer 2011! The thumb rule is simple - the losing leg should be dropped and the winning leg should be retained [even if it means that the losing leg was the original position and the winning leg was just the hedge - what matters for the trade is which leg is swelling trading margin and which leg is depleting it; the leg that depletes should be knocked out - period] Also, not every trade can result in success; even with all the notes, there are days filled with whipsaws when stop losses are triggered on either side! We have to humbly accept that and move on. Last but not the least, the stop loss needs to be modified once a trade is going in your favor so that you lock in some of the gains.

EOD Analysis For 16th February 2012 and Outlook For 17th February 2012

Whilst the global cues were not positive, the price action can at best be described as routine profit booking IMHO as far as Nifty is concerned; considering the meteoric rise Nifty has had in the last 2 months. OI in Nifty futures pretty much the same as yesterday; VIX still below 24 - so no signs of danger yet.

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged.

5408-5532 has been a consolidation area for umpteen sessions in 2011 also; it takes some time for Nifty to convincingly take out 5532 on closing basis with volume and momentum; should that happen now, then the next assault by bulls can at 5655-5690 with minor resistance at 5608

Breach of 5408 on downside on 2 consecutive daily closes or one weekly close will encourage more shorts - until then the scale is tilted in favor of bulls.

As far as the critical dates are concerned, yes I did mention that 16th Feb to 22nd Feb do have a negative tinge with highest weightage around 20th Feb to 22nd Feb; however, the severeity of this negative tinge is questionable now [tomorrow's close should provide some clue]

Today was the 13th session above the critical band of 5177-5196 zone; if it holds out tomorrow as well [very likely that it will] then in all likelihood, this will stay as the bottom on closing basis for another 8 sessions [following 2-3-5-8-13-21 sequence] i.e. until end of Feb'12 calendar month.

Review of Time Forecasts of Recent Past for good tradeable swings

Period                           Forecast                  Verdict
22nd Sep '11                 Bearish                      Success
16th-22nd Nov '11        Bearish                     Success
21st Dec '11                  Bullish                       Success
17th Jan '11                   Bearish                     Flop

The sample size is too small and unless the track record improves, I would myself take it with a pinch of salt [hedging is very critical regardless of personal bias always]

Highly Sensitive Dates For the next few weeks [direction to be determined basis price action]

20th Feb to 22nd Feb 2012 [personally bearish]
21st Mar to 6th Apr 2012
17th Apr to 20th Apr 2012

EOD Analysis For 15th February 2012 and Outlook For 16th February 2012

Very positive start aided by positive global cues and good news on liquidity front from all over. OI in Nifty futures were same as yesterday at open [1.5 million added after Europe session opened] and VIX below 23!

Broader markets also in sync with the upside; momentum in bell weather stocks like metals, infra is simply amazing thanks to liquidity flowing from all over the place. Banknifty is on a roll as usual leading from front

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged; 5532 assaulted as well today! To sustain this upside further, volumes need to increase by at least 5% more [can come through shorts entering the system as well]

EOD Analysis For 14th February 2012 and Outlook For 15th February 2012

Happy Valentine's day to all;

OI in Nifty futures dropped a couple of million today but still hovering around the 28.5 million mark. Sectoral churns as usual and VIX still below 24. Liquidity flowing from all over BoJ, BoE and more anticipated from Fed as well; so all this liquidity will certainly find their ways into the stock and commodity markets.

Whilst a correction is anticipated, even such pauses are good after such a relentless rally across Nifty from the lows of December; we have had only 1 meaningful day of correction in 2012 so far; 6 sessions to go prior to expiry and things still seem to be hunky dory on the surface.

Today marked the first close above 5408; [we need 2 consecutive closes above 5408 and the same did not happen last Friday after Thursday 9th Feb close above 5408]

Critical Levels and outlook remain unchanged from yesterday.

EOD Analysis For Feb 13th 2012 and Outlook For Feb 14th 2012

Well the OI in Nifty futures was pretty much unchanged from previous levels. Sectoral churns as usual and VIX a shade below 24 yet. Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from Friday's posts. The way BNF bounced back from the lows of the day is amazing. [The free flow of liquidity from central bankers almost always finds its ways into stocks/commodites and not translate into business credit as outlined in the weekend update!]

For upside: Resistances remain at 5408-5440-5480-5532
2 consecutive closes over 5408 will in all likelihood test 5532 on the upside

For Downside: Initial signs of weakness below 5325 and 2 consecutive closes below 5280 can retest the crucial support band of 5032-5092. As mentioned on Friday, expecting the crucial band of 5177-5196 to hold on closing basis until 16th Feb EOD.

8 sessions to go prior to expiry day and action on either side can be anticipated.

Are markets out of the woods - I don't think so but still no clear signals of danger; the longer markets take to correct, the sharper will be the ensuing correction.

General Updates - Indian Fundamentals With Special Coverage For Telecom

We keep hearing about the Indian growth story being intact and that the demographic dividend will keep the consumption story intact. Whilst there are a lot of flaws in the arguments but nevertheless, I do believe in the potential that India has to grow the economy better. As dictated by all historical examples, to build strong fundamentals for the economy, 2 elements are extremely crucial - first, a lot of investment in infrastructure; second, changes in governance to eliminate red tapes and facilitate business transactions.

India, unfortunately is far behind a lot of emerging nations when it comes to both these factors. That the strong demand for IT/ITeS has brought in a lot of transformations is a very positive and unexpected pleasant surprise, it masks the real challenges we face in India. Another point that should always be remembered is that the US, major European countries embraced technology and development but never at the expense of agriculture. India today has come to a stage where the same acre of a rice field that earlier had to produce food for 4 people has to produce food for 8 people. Yet, our development in agriculture has taken a backseat completely. We end up wasting about 30% of our agriculture produce by the time it reaches the end customer from the farms.

We talk about the Chinese dragon but there is absolutely no comparison between India and China. China has built its infrastructure well and is still continuing; at the same time, China is also very focussed on productivity of its farms; case in point - 1 hectare of a rice field in China is almost 4 times as productive as the rice field in India! 1 hectare of wheat output in the US is almost 6 times the output of 1 hectare of wheat in India! Without developing the agricultural setup, India is fast running into a major tsunami of food problems. On the other hand, our infrastructure still is about 2 decades behind where it should be - as shown in the rhetoric Bollywood movie Khatta Meetha last year - a simple thing like a small road keeps a contractor on-going for his entire life! [bas ek sadak ko zindagi bhar yahan se wahan, wahan se yahan karke dhera jamaa lete hain!]

Housing prices are appreciating way faster than incomes are - this at some point of time is going to create a lot of challenges. I am not saying that the housing market correction in India will be as severe as in the West but our real estate market is extremely over-heated. Whilst the upside pressure on prices do exist due to demand-supply imbalances, time and again it has been proven that housing prices escalating faster than incomes at some point of time create a potent bomb waiting to explode. One potential reason why the bomb is not very active in India is due to the fact that we don't have the concept of Mortgage Backed Securities and Credit Default Swaps in the housing markets - which is indirectly a very good thing.

However, the Indian governance is still not well poised to help the country really grow well - even for an enterprise with deep pockets, it takes anywhere between 100 days to 180 days to be able to start an enterprise and be functional [for the ones without deep pockets, this process could take even a decade - ok that is an exaggeration!] Compare that with Asian peers like Singapore or Hong Kong [no point comparing with the fiat currencies as they are on a different planet all together when it comes to these things!], by 35 days, everything is in place for running an enterprise.

Our politicians and bureaucrats want it that way; the lesser the transparency and greater the number of speed-breakers for new business, the greater is the potential for graft in all formats. Since the most debated and discussed section is on the telecom sector off late, allow me to illustrate the divergence that is on-going with our political and media circus.

That the procedure adopted for doling out 2G licenses was absolutely flawed is known to one and all. The BJP and Congress can keep mud-slinging against each other but that is absolute crap. On the other hand, there are advocates moving around trumpeting that the fixed fee method of doling out spectrum ensured access to low tariffs for consumers. Do our leaders think that their citizens are fools and have no common sense?

Picture this
The population of US is 30% that of India; the population of UK much lower as compared to that of India; likewise for rest of Europe. Vodafone, AT&T, British Telecom, Verizon etc paid at least 4 times the amount for the 2G/3G [and now 4G] auctions than the license prices of India [even if we were to take the auctions route - if we compare with the fixed license fees, the amount these companies paid could be anywhere between 6 to 8 times the price paid in India - officially.....] The average post-paid bill in US/UK/Europe for a post-paid bundle of voice + data with 3G works out to USD/EUR 50 per month [approximately INR 3000 per month] And let us not forget that with these average post-paid bill, the customer need not incur any expense for owning a mobile handset. It comes free with the contract with a 24 month binding period [i.e. the customer can avail these benefits and a free handset provinded s/he stays with the same carrier for 2 years and terminating the contract prior to 24 months would mean an extra penalty to recover the cost of the handset]

Now, these very suckers say that the auction route would increase costs for the end-consumer. First and foremost, even with the auction route [had it been implemented] the license cost is about 60% lower in India. Taking the middle class group brings forth 300 million customers ready and another 300 million people in the lower income bracket who will utilize the mobile phone. There is absolutely no need for service providers to give a handset to the customer in India. The data access is pathetic to put it mildly. Hence, the entire argument that low license fees provided for better tariffs in India is a farce. Even with the auction prices, the amount of revenue that Indian customers generate for telecom operators [and considering the fact that no handset needs to be provided] is far ahead of revenues that are generated in the western world. So what else do these telecom companies have to spend on to recover the cost of licenses - bingo it is the graft to be paid to the entire bureaucracy from babus to all political parties right upto the PMO - perhaps, if one starts accounting for costs incurred in these grafts, perhaps, the cost to telecom companies to acquire a license is even greater than the cost to acquire a license in western countries!

Our political and bureaucratic machinery is least bothered about losses to the exchequer or benefits to the citizens of India. All that they are bothered about is how much can they shove into their coffers - and this is precisely what makes things difficult in India. To summarize, even if the auction route was adopted or will be adopted in future for 2G/3G licenses, Indian [official] license costs are far lower than those in the west. India's potential to recover those costs and make the business worthwhile is far longer ; it is the indirect fixed costs in the form of graft that make things worse. The Indian conusmer is worse off because even with a commitement of INR 3000 per month [at par with the middle class of the west], the Indian customer gets pathetic data service; s/he has to buy his/her own handset and yet get less than accepted global standards service.

Politicians are just using these license issues for their votebank politics; whether it is the party in power or parties in opposition - literally every single leader has extracted his/her own pound of flesh and we, the common people have to bear the brunt of their misdeeds.

For the main article, unless we do not work out the infrastructure aspect of India and bring more transparency, eliminating bureaucracy and multiple layers of taxation, the Indian growth story will go for a toss. Last but not the least, no matter how much people criticise the RBI, IMHO the RBI has done its best within its powers to reign the money markets and I hope it becomes better in due course of time. For now, a major problem it needs to resolve is that of fake currency notes that are floating around the entire system - that is going to be a big pain that RBI needs to ingeniously work out.

General Write-Ups - The Foxy Central Bankers / Mainstream E-con-omists

Over the last few weeks, a lot of debate has been on-going on the blogosphere as to whether low / near zero rates have helped improve the economy or fuelled inflation and wrecked the economy. The deflationist arguments [most prominently from EWI and some puritan Keynesian e-con-omists] argue that credit squeeze is a leading barometer of deflation. The jobs data also tend to reflect things in good order. Proponents of inflation point to decreasing purchasing power - so what exactly is the real thing?

Well I am no economist to be able to spell out a very articulate document but will just put in some insights that prove that as far as the common man is concerned, across the globe, the inflation theory is in good order for now.

[With near-zero rates, obviously I am referring to the fiat currency nations]
Let us first examine some of the basic tenets measured by the deflation argument that says that near-zero rates have helped the economy.

The first argument is that the asset bubble has been burst well with the dot-com bust and the real estate market crash. The second points to some nice looking graphs that prove that central bankers are close to the low inflation targets. First and foremost, it is still unclear on what basis are mainstream economists central bankers saying that economic growth has been good and that inflation as been pretty much under control. Then there is the argument that a basket of goods needs to be taken into account to arrive at figures [and most calculations are on WPI basis and not what the end-consumer pays]

First, Real Estate did see a big boom as well as bust [and housing prices in many areas are yet to find a bottom as there is excess supply and hardly any demand growth]. So if one assigns a high weightage to that, then it is very easy to say that inflation has gone down. Crude has fluctuated between USD 30 and USD 150 a barrel depending on cycles but that is still way ahead of what crude prices were a decade ago - so the central banker's hypothesis that inflation is under check already goes for a big toss here; gasoline is an integral part of the consumption cycle and hence a major contributor to inflation.

Second, one just needs to look at the price of essential items like corn, soybeans, rice, wheat and these prices have more than doubled over the last decade. It doesn't matter what the graph of the CRB Index [elite Elliotticians like to chalk out a wave structure to this and point to the deflation argument] looks like and how much it has dropped - the bottom line is people have had to spend anywhere between 5% and 10% more per annum as far as supermarket purchases of essential needs are concerned.

The other argument usually leans towards the Dollar Index that moves anywhere between 0 and 100 and tends to throw up a mirage that currencies are adjusting against each other; just look at the price of gold; whilst it may not have utility value as a commodity, the bottomline is mankind still values gold as the true reflector of wealth and a standard measure of inflation. Agreed that the price of gold is certainly over-heated and is due for a correction [my hyptothesis is that a lot of pressure on gold prices stems from the fact that there are excessively leveraged ETFs / Hedge Funds in Long Gold that in due course of time will go through the process of deleveraging and easing gold prices] That being said, will we ever return to an era when the price of gold will be under USD 400 an ounce???

Did the dollar appreciate against the euro or yen against the dollar or whatever - an emphatic no; regardless of fluctuations in these currency exchange rates and the dollar index, the price of gold is pretty much the straight forward reflector that ALL G-8 currencies HAVE FALLEN tremendously. The more central bankers activate the printing press, the greater will be the upside pressure on Gold and all essential commodities.

We have come to an era where our lives are completely under control of the banksters [be it private or central] In recent times, reporters point out to rising consumer credit due to spending via credit cards etc - have we scratched beyond surface as to what those spendings maybe???? The number of people out of labor force have increased so tremendously that they are having to utilize credit cards to pay utility bills and make purchase of essential goods - the amount of individual consumer credit defaults are simply enormous; people are reneging on their credit obligations to banks [be it mortgage, be it credit card debt or car loans]

Hedge Funds are collapsing, enterprises are shutting down and laying off employees, bonuses are taking steep cuts - and yet, the markets seem to be on a roll. So in a way, the deflationists SEEM to be correct HOWEVER the end consumer is not seeing a dime of savings on basic grocery and utility bills.

What the near-zero rates have done is simply provided banks with no-frills cash but that is not translating into business credit. It is only fuelling asset bubbles [first the internet was thought to be a perpetual cash machine, then real estate was considered to be a money spinner and now it is trickling into commodities]

The classical economic model that suggests that mild inflation is good banks upon the old theory of the 'multiplier effect' which would be true if enterprises were indeed flourishing, goods and services changed hands well and people were employed. The stock market is not physics agreed but models need to be altered over time with changes that are taking place in the world. Surely Newtonian Physics was absolutely the best model until Einstein brought in the theory of relativity; the smarter world embraced the change and moved accordingly - this is the first major flaw IMHO as far as mainstream economists and central bankers are concerned on a fundamental level. Of course they are all well learned, possess doctorates and undoubtedly smart and intelligent people - but have they learned to adapt and move ahead with times???? - I don't think so. In a world of relativity, proven literallly undisputed, they are trying to enfore Newtonian Models!!! [What to do??? That is the only model they studied for over decades for doctorates!!!!]

The other part certainly has to do with the fact that politicians and mainstream bankers unequivocally TWIST the arms of central bankers left, right and centre for personal gains.

Typical Central Banker's Basket of Goods/Services to Measure Inflation [just a rudimentary analysis and not a Big 5 consulting model with statistical jargon - I prefer the kick my beer gives me than intellectual m$@&^btion]

Year1:

Average Earning: USD 50000 per annum
Expense on Rental / Mortgage: USD 20000
Expense on Gasoline: USD 3000
Expense on Food and Essentials: USD 10000
Leisure Expenditure: USD 5000
Healthcare and Childcare: USD 10000
Expense / Earnings: 96%

Year2:

Average Earning: USD 55000 per annum [10% increase]
Expense on Rental / Mortgage: USD 22000
Expense on Gasoline: USD 4000
Expense on Food and Essentials: USD 11000
Leisure Expenditure: USD 5000
Healthcare and Childcare: USD 10000
Expense / Earnings: 94%
[Wonderful - hardly any inflation!]

Year3:

Average Earning: USD 60000 per annum [9% increase]
Expense on Rental / Mortgage: USD 22000
Expense on Gasoline: USD 3000
Expense on Food and Essentials: USD 13000
Leisure Expenditure: USD 7000
Healthcare and Childcare: USD 12000

Expense / Earnings: 96%
[Wonderful - moderate inflation!]

Year4:

Average Earning: USD 25000 [a lot of people lost jobs and are on social security]
Expense on Rental / Mortgage: USD 0 [people reneging on debt obligations]
Expense on Gasoline: USD 1000
Expense on Food and Essentials: USD 8000
Leisure Expenditure: USD 0
Healthcare and Childcare: USD 7000
Expense / Earnings: 100%
[Wonderful - moderate inflation despite a weak economy]

Now can somebody please tell me where the @$%# is the multiplier effect [I can only see the multiplier effect in debt and in commodities]; a person can renege on mortgage, a person can renege on credit card debt but can he renege on food and essentials? Maybe the brand choices will change and more private label consumption can come through, but the inflation bug is always looming around. Asset values in terms of housing prices may change and imply change in net worth but again as I mentioned above, just look at how much one has to pay at the supermarkets for a basket of goods. For the same basket of goods, year on year the prices have been escalating to the north. And if we take a representative sample of people under all economic classes, except for the millionaires and billionaires who keep shoving money around, pay packages are dropping and people are a fix to build sustainable lives!

President after president in the US keeps reiterating that every cent of the debt will be paid when treasuries are due to be auctioned or new bonds are being issued for some 'stimulus scheme'. For 7 decades this has been happening now and all that we are seeing is old debt being rolled over into new debt - but not a cent is repaid back in principle because rolling over debt is as good as printing money. The US of course has the advantage of the US Dollar being the mainstream currency of the globe [and that keeps a demand for dollars intact in the market] Everybody is intoxicated and the realities are forgotten. Likewise, with the UK - all that they have been doing is printing money to keep rolling over the debt and these measures do not stimulate the economy. If anything, they wreck the lives of common people who are left jobless, or have mortgages beyond the corrected values and incomes - yet the bulls seem to be on a party.

All this of course is largely fueled by the emerging economies who need to boost exports and hence keep lapping up the treasuries of central banks that can be used as collateral to extend lines of credit for exports. So far so good but the day is not far when this trust will go. The US and UK are 2 leading forces that have an uncanny ability to divert people's attention with wars etc and try to maintain military hegemony; Millions and billions of dollars are spent on space shuttles and nuclear weapons that are best left avoided - in such troubling times, how does it matter whether there is life on Mars when we have so many hungry and jobless people left on ground.

If zero-interest rates indeed helped stimulate an economy, why does a fantastic company like Hertz [a car rental company] denied a bailout when it was cash-strapped [the banks found the fundamentals poor]? And yet, the very banksters' private equity divisions took out a Leveraged Buy Out [LBO] of the firm as a distressed asset and then boasted of turning it around in a couple of years. [so you see what I am getting at? the near zero rates only help bankers to get access to cheap cash, shove it around the way they want - and of course pay a far lower tax rate for being able to shove the money around!!!] Now Hertz is just one example I have right now and GOD alone knows how many small and medium sized enterprises lost out their businesses due to lack of access to credit and ultimately liquidated the business as a distress sale.

Who pays the price for these near-zero rates and bankers profits? Of course it is the tax payers with or without jobs. Nevertheless, this article has gone too far and the bottom line is very very clear - politicians, central bankers and mainstream economists very nicely manage to convince the public at large that 'All is Well' and that they have the interest of people at large in mind - Sorry that is not the case and the faster people learn to challenge the real truth - the better.


A major trend with the current economic situation is that the younger people are out of the work force and the minimum wages deter them to put in those hours of work as the benefits of social security pretty much match the minimum wages and this is slowly translating into a vicious death spiral for the economy. That being said, inflationary pressure on essential goods will keep increasing with money printing. The deflation argument will only take effect if at some point of time, there are countries that say - sorry we are not interested in lapping up Dollars, Euros, Pounds or Yen. Unless people at large simply give up these currencies completely and display an absolute lack of trust - the paradigm shift won't take place.

So it is in our best interest to plan our own financial future, no matter where we are and learn to ignore noises from the e-con-omists [they are living in a different world and their mind clocks are still stuck in old times of their Keynesian economics studies!]