Friday, March 9, 2012

EOD Analysis For 9th March 2012 and Outlook For 12th March 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around 28.5 - 29 million and VIX cooling a bit more and a shade below 26 [respite for bulls but still need to be alert]

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged and 5177-5196 band survived yet another day [and is expected to do so for another 2 weeks unless some major bad news comes through] BNF needs 2 consecutive closes above 10400 to get some strength; 2 consecutive closes below 10150 can invite retest of 9800 levels [the zone in between is just a trading band and depending on risk appetite one can trade as deemed appropriate] Premiums are healthy on index futures but from next Wednesday or so, the premiums can be expected to be a bit more rational [looking for a drop of 10-15 points on Mar Nifty futures and 20-25 points on Apr Nifty futures]

On 29th Feb or so I had put an image and so far action has been within the W4 channel of that image; trading levels for people with risk appetite covered extremely well by Raghuji so I won't dwell too much into it;

Enjoy your weekend and I will chip in the next post after Monday EOD.

PS: On a side note, let us pay tribute to Rahul Dravid, 'The Wall' and his achievements are no mean feat. I am sure he will continue make contributions to the game in due course of time.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

EOD Analysis For 7th March 2012 and Outlook For 9th March 2012

Unfortunately I don't have the OI/VIX data with me right now and hence no inputs on those end. [software problems thy name :(]

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BNF from yesterday's post.
5177-5196 band survived yet another day. The scale is evenly poised between bulls and bears and as long as bulls hold this crucial band on closing basis, they have an upper hand; however, they can only breathe easy after taking out 5408 [taking out 5280 with volume and momentum is first signal for safe traders to go long]

For traders with risk appetite, Raghuji's vibrant posts with trading levels / justification are there for all to see; must point out over here that this is all a result of Wave Rider constantly hammering us with 'Effort + Discipline = Success' We keep working on the left hand side variables and hope that the result moves more consistently than has been in the past.

PS: Whilst Raghuji has been giving us a lot of info on EW and Nifty trading levels, I must point out over here that the Rollar is also moving as per EW scripts :D. Rollar completed a very longer term 5 wave structure at 54-55 levels, came down in a corrective towards 48 and now is chalking out the 2nd/B wave; if this count is correct, the maximum fall the Rollar will have is 52 followed by a monsterous 3rd/C wave taking Rollar well below 46.25 as well IMHO and that will cheer up the bourses big time! Let us keep our fingers crossed

Wishing all of you greetings of Holi; enjoy the festivities with friends and family.

Next Nifty Update: Friday EOD

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

EOD Analysis For 6th March 2012 and Outlook For 7th March 2012

What a day!?!?! paradise for savvy day traders with lots of opportunities and extremely choppy for weak hands and such market conditions can trigger stop losses on either sides! In my limited trading experience, this is only the 2nd March series I am witnessing and I guess this choppy trend is here to stay until 21st March; from 21st March to 23rd March, one direction will be determined and then that direction can be expected to continue for 2 weeks, there on; [March 2011 was no different]

Today, OI in Nifty futures at 29 million today and VIX cooled off to around 27 levels which means bulls need to be in caution mode.

Critical Levels and outlook remain unchanged from yesterday; bulls need to take out 5408 asap whilst bears need to break 5177-5196 levels on closing basis. Today marked the 38th consecutive close [39th for those who count the weekend session] above the crucial band mentioned and that should work as the floor for another 17 sessions IMHO.

PS: Received feedback from somebody that I have not been writing about BNF, for quite some time now. My apologies for that. BNF needs 2 consecutive closes above 10400 levels and can retest 10800 levels; 2 consecutive closes below 10150 can invite retest of 9800

Monday, March 5, 2012

EOD Analysis For 5th March 2012 and Outlook For 6th March 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 28 million mark; VIX spooked up to 29 odd levels and broader markets saw more downside compared to index components;

Critical Levels and outlook remain unchanged from previous post;

Nifty needs to take out 5408-5440-5480 with volume [at least 3% to 5% more volumes on upside] and the hopes of rewitnessing 5608-5655 levels in March series are still intact as long as 5177-5196 [5200 rounded] on closing basis hold out; [today marked the 37th consecutive close above 5177-5196 band/38th if one counts the weekend session]

Below 5032 on closing basis will become complete bear's feast and the odds of the entire rally from 4531 getting reversed are very high;