Saturday, August 20, 2011

Global Market Updates / Special Coverage For Indian Bourses

I thought that the weekend would be a good time to wrap up a bird's eye view of the global market conditions.

Dow: People have written off Dow already and turning more bearish by the day. However, there is a time and price balance. The registered high on Dow spot was 12873 on May 2nd 2011; Whilst it is trading phenomenally lower now, it will not go down so easily so soon. It will make 2 more attempts to come close to 12k and possibly even go to 12400. The turning points for these upsides will continue to be 22nd September and 21st December respectively before the towel is thrown completely.

Situation of US Economy: The talks of deleveraging is still a myth; of course the smaller fund houses have already gone bust and even the big names are slowly putting a freeze on new recruits and establishing plans of severance in the eventual course of an economic slowdown. Housing markets are yet to test the lows and consumer confidence is also pretty low. One early hint of inevitable trouble [even before the SnP downgrades were announced] was the fact that the last 3 months have seen a remarkable increase in payment of utility bills through credit cards and leading card lenders are going through a tough time to recover dues from a lot of credit card holders. [So the convenience myth of using credit card for bill payments is by and large debunked]


If the September announcements from President Obama bring cheer, then one should not be surprised to see a revisit to the May levels on Dow. Essentially, what smart money wants to know is how the budget deficit can be curtailed. Given the changed socio-economic climate of the globe, one of the low hanging fruits for US is to curtail defence expenditure which is slowly but surely happening.

The USD will continue to be the standard global currency for commodities and trades world wide and the dollar index is almost at a bottom. It will start surging back sooner than later.


FTSE: FTSE made an intermediate high of 6100+ levels in the first quarter this year and had thus opened the possibility of going to even 6400 which I was personally very optimistic about. The condition was to ensure that 5550 is not breached during the subsequent corrections. The 5550 level has been convincingly breached and FTSE has also tested the 5k levels. Like the Dow, FTSE will also make some attempts to move towards the 5800/6000 mark before taking the final plunge to almost post-Lehman Brothers levels.

Bird's Eye View of The Economy: The banking industry continues to reel under pressure of toxic assets. Lloyds TSB has not even managed to break even from losses incurred by acquiring HBOS [which one should remember was done sans proper due diligence and even had laws manipulated to accommodate the merger. The projected cost savings have not come through] Other aspect is that while one hears 'Property prices now reflect sanity instead of Vanity in London', the prices are no where near the bottom. Hunger for credit growth is getting banks to continue making mortgage disbursements sans due diligence. The banks are getting credit from the central bank at near zero rates and the wrong incentives are ensuring that the economy goes for a toss in full steam.

On the other hand, a weaker GBP is helping some of the industries of UK [especially in Off The Road transport equipments] but that still does not resolve the major challenges. Moreover, all the internal political challenges does not make the country a place for sound investments.

Both US and UK have one common problem as of now; lack of innovation, lack of manufacturing and a social culture that is largely dependent on Social Security. This does not augur well and the slowdown this time will see a lot of work that is outsourced be pulled back into hinterland areas.

DAX: The DAX has long ago topped out for 2011 and with a constant Euro measurement, it is set to fall about 60% from this year's top [or about 45% on nominal Euro terms]. Engineering and manufacturing continue to be the forte in Germany. The Hannover exhibition is time and again showing very innovative instruments being crafted in Germany's laboratories. Currently, a strong Euro is making a lot of good products unviable compared to counterparts in US, UK, Japan and S. Korea. However, with a fall in Euro, there will be a lot of demand for German goods and services.

Whilst this won't prevent the DAX from collapsing, it won't be as systemic as some of the other European bourses are slated to be. The larger problem affecting Germany is that it is now the sole creditor for other Euro zone countries. With 3 countries already having their bonds rated as junk and 3 more potential countries in the waiting list for Euro aid, the system is heading towards a crash. The Swiss-German border is seeing renewed industrial activity and Austrians too are making silent contributions to this development. Given the gravity of the crisis, one may see some more strong ties emerging among Switzerland, Germany and Austria. The sole bone of contention between the Swiss and German governments, the issue of tax evasion by a lot of Germans stashing away money in Swiss accounts may end up with some mutual win-win agreements. The conditions will be such that rather than focus on the breach of laws, the focus might shift to a better taxation system as Germany will be very much in need of money and punitive steps will certainly not help.

CAC40: CAC40 too topped out quite some time ago. The challenge with France is that the longevity of the people is very high but they work only till the age of 58. The industrial productivity has not improved at all that made France a very prosperous nation in the first place. Moreover, the social security obligations are putting more tax payers under burden and the number of people eligible for government concessions is increasing by the day. The soaring premiums for CDS derivatives on French debt clearly is a leading indicator that smart money is worried about economic problems in France.

For the average person in France in the age group 25-32, the average wages have come to about 2500 Euros a month even in a major city like Paris. Even the leading French banks are having challenges with recovering dues from customers who tend to take 2 months forward credit. [In France for instance, you don't get a separate ATM Card and Credit Card; The card is a dual card and allows for a certain level of overdraft even if the account balance of the account holder is nil. The subsequent deposits are adjusted for the existing debits. People are utilizing full credit for about 2 months on an average which implies that at any given point of time, the odds of having a lot of accounts with debit balances are very high]

That being said, France does not lack talent by and large apart from doctors and nurses. There are good engineers for innovation etc and it is only a matter of time that they recognize this and shift the attitudes from a state dependent work force. The close alliance with Germany will do well to limit losses but the CAC40 is set to go below 50% of the 2011 top next year.

PIIGS: all set to sink back to lower than post Lehman Brothers values and a systemic crash of almost all small banks [or probably major ones as well; in Portugal and Ireland, more and more people are withdrawing money from banks which will sooner or later bring a lot of problems in the banking segment. Santander of Spain which currently boasts of about 1.3 trillion Euros of assets will be a major blow out candidate losing over 50% of asset value within a few days.

Major Lesson For Investors: Don't fear if the market is melting. 2014 will be a megabull run and it is not a party to be missed. Dow Futures [due to be listed on NSE soon], Nifty Bees and BankBees are some very good investments. However, markets take time to bottom out just as they take time to top out. So it is good to invest in about 6 tranches over the next 18 months.

Nifty may sink all the way to 3900 or for that matter the panic bottom of 2525 that we saw in October 2008; no problem at all. Let us say one has an outlay of 1 lakh for investing into Nifty. On the other hand it may just tank upto 4675, the panic bottom of Feb 2010 and turnaround. When Nifty is at 4800, one can put in 10k worth of investment in NiftyBees i.e. 20 units [1 unit = 10% of the index value of the day + some administrative charges]. When the value is at 4600, one can add another 10k. To the extent Nifty is above 4000, one can safely invest 10k for a couple of instances. If in case it sinks further below, when Nifty is in the region 3000-4000, one can use corrections and chip in 15k on each major correction. 2014 is bound to be a fantastic year for Nifty and global equities [If election records are any indication of trends from a practical point of view and cycles of boom and bust] Systematic investment helps because it is not possible to point a finger around and confirm the firm bottom. Only subsequent price action confirms the firm bottom.

Simulated Calculation of  Networth investing say in 4 installments; 2 installments of 10k each and 2 of 15k
(Asset Values are calculated adjusting for approximate deductions; ignoring interim losses on units bought at higher values)

Installment1-------------------- Nifty Spot ---------------Amount------------Units-------- Asset Value
August '11----------------------4800----------------------10k---------20------------------9600
December '11------------------ 4300----------------------10k---------22------------------9460
April '12------------------------3800----------------------15k---------38-----------------14,440
July '12------------------------- 4000----------------------15k-------- 36-----------------14,440
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary-------------------------------------------------- 50k-------116 Units
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Worst case scenario even if Nifty just manages to revisit the Nov '10 highs in Nov '14 i.e. 6300 levels
Your gains will be 23k in a 3 year time period [116 x 630 = 73k; less 50k money invested] giving you a return of 46% in a 3 year time frame which is almost a 30% annualized return, far higher than the 10% FD
[That being said, one must have about 30% of investments in FD for personal emergencies]

A similar exercise for Bankbees will result in over 40% annualized growth with a 3 year horizon. It is a very good thing that the exchange itself has come up with index related funds and one is sure of liquidity if one wants to encash these gains.

The sole reason why the average investor is better off investing in the index is because in today's complex business scenarios, traditional valuation models and income/expense streams are going for a toss. It becomes extremely difficult to track performance of too many stocks. The average investor [or for that matter even experts] has no clue about so many companies in which one has invested. In fact if one makes a laundry list of companies that have come and gone bust or stocks that have been launched and lost values, probably one might actually end up with an Encyclopedia of Defunct Stocks!

Just to illustrate some well known 'branded' firms; Moser Baer in 2 years the stock has lost over 80% of its value; Cantabil, Koutons both clothing brands that had successful IPOs with an average listing of 350 rupees; again over 70% of values eroded.

Now think again - what is one doing as a shareholder; buying a business that generates revenues and then gets a part of the profit [I am not talking about speculative trading here - pure fundamental investment point of view] If you are a partial owner of Koutons or Cantabil, would you like the way the business is run

Doling out 5 garments for free when 3 garments are purchased. Even with the lowest Cost of Goods, the minimum expense of cost of goods alone is 1800 rupees. Even with a high mark up, the revenue earned on the transaction will be about 4500 rupees. That leaves a gross margin of 2700; the rental for the shop, the overheads, the branding costs will require at least another 2000 rupees. So the next amount the business is actually left with is 700 rupees which is the net profit and incidentally, the banks have a lien on all these revenues and the end result is that there is negative earnings on each share.

The IPO certainly was made successful courtesy partner banks who are doing the whole IPO for a transaction commission. Ellaborate hoardings are put up all over the place to attract the average investor's attention who is commuting with stress and coping up with inflation and more work burden and wants to ensure that there is some additional security and provisioning made for his/her family. If you are a mechanical or project engineer yourself and understand the capital goods segment, you can chose between a large cap like LnT, BHEL or a small cap like NRB Bearings or whatever

So the index itself Nifty, Banknifty, Sensex etc will ensure that regardless of individual stocks performance, you get the minimum average gains of the index itself. In a 3 year horizon, be it a boom or gloom period, things do turnaround. Stocks are a way to wealth provided they are invested in the right stocks or ideally the index itself if you don't want to spend time investigating and segregating the wheat from chaff.

The long term growth story of India is still intact and stocks will generate wealth and provide adequate protection from inflation. Caveat: Keep booking some profits from time to time as well so that the paper gains are realized into real gains and used for good purposes.

Sources for global market outlook
Financial Times[www.ft.com]
The Market Oracle [blog link on homepage of this blog]
Global Market Perspective [Elliot Wave Publications]
WSJ: Wall Street Journal



Friday, August 19, 2011

EOD Analysis for 19th August 2011 and Outlook for 22nd August 2011

Weakness in the markets continued with very modest signs of short covering in the last hour. The volumes have been very high on the down and Nifty futures saw an OI of over 30 million through out the day. A lot of selling pressure is coming due to margin calls on Western bourses and redemption pressures.

As far as DAX and CAC40 were concerned, I had long ago given the forecast that they have topped out and likewise for Dow as well. On FTSE, I did anticipate a rally towards 6400 but the close below 5550 on FTSE ruled that out completely. DAX will melt another 2200 points from current levels in a year to come and CAC40 will collapse by another 950 points at least further. However, this correction has been rapid and there will be some intermediate reliefs.

For Nifty, fundamentals have not changed but with a subdued political scenario, weak global cues, there is not much liquidity to fuel the markets big time. Some value buying will come in and this is actually a very good time to invest in some good counters for short term upside. Managing too many counters in a portfolio will be difficult and hence it would be good to buy the index itself via ETFs. Banks will lead the recovery from here and one should see fresh supply once 9500 is taken out convincingly.

The Dow syndrome normally tends to be happy Fridays and unlucky Mondays; if that jinx continues today and on Monday, we may turn the other way around i.e. cheer on Monday and gloom on Tuesday. Banknifty is still vulnerable to a couple of round of sell-offs but I am reasonably sure that with expiry around the corner and an almost perpetual fall we have had this series, relief is on the cards. From the highs of July, Banknifty has dropped 2100 points in about 4 weeks time. A 1000 point relief rally is likely in the next 4 weeks. In case it does decide to go and retest the long term support line of 9200 on spot, even then a return to 10k levels in Aug series is not ruled out.

It remains to be seen how SBI and ICICI shape up now and whether they do manage to take support from here [or may be 140 points further down on SBI and 80 points down on ICICI before a technical pull-back takes place] The 10k figure is both technically and psychologically important for the market in the short term.

Markets are still not out of the woods but it is time to start cherry picking stocks and indices in small tranches. Nifty is below all crucial support levels of the medium term. this the third straight week in a row where Nifty has closed below the close of the previous week. [5072 last week was the closing figure] So the short term resistances will be 4950, 5020, 5050, 5092, 5120, 5150 and 5177; Unless 5225 taken out on EOD basis, there is not much hope on the Nifty. We are 4 trading sessions away from expiry.

It will be subject to manipulations and low margin traders should wait till the expiry is done with. The current VIX levels are placing very high Put premiums a lot of which will vanish in thin air within 5 to 7 trading sessions now. Premiums have returned to Banknifty futures to reasonable levels and marginal levels for Nifty futures. I would interpret this as Longs rolling over their positions for September series and shorts booking out slowly.

Stay very alert and trade with calculated strategies for capital protection in case of a trade going against you. Risk-reward ratio is in favor of buying now. Hope all of you had a profitable week and continue to make more as time progresses. Wishing all of you a very enjoyable weekend.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

EOD Analysis for 18th August 2011 and Outlook for 19th August 2011

Nifty yet again opened on a modest note but potential downfall was imminent with the way banks were badgered yet again. Absolutely no signs of short coverings from the bigger players and in fact even when some shorts were being covered, the bloodbath simply refused to stop. This is the longest losing streak of Banknifty in a single day and in 2 consecutive sessions, it has fallen by more than 600 points.

Indication for downside on the Nifty was confirmed with yesterday's heavy sell in Banknifty; however, it was only a matter of time as Banks got chopped further and the broader markets are simply under a lot of pressure especially given weak global cues. Today was the 4th consecutive close below 5092 levels; Friday syndrome has always haunted Nifty through out 2011 and just a couple of exceptions have marked green days that too on a positive note. Depending on margin calls tomorrow, it remains to be seen whether there is a positive trajectory or there is more mayhem to be witnessed on the bourses.

Banknifty went further below yesterdays indicated level of 9700 and unless banks start moving up, not much relief can be expected on Nifty. Upside for Nifty remains capped at 5092 on EOD basis even with the strongest whirl of short covering. There is no panic on the streets simply because retail investors have long forgotten the stock markets after the collapse from Diwali 2010 highs and are now simply waiting to be rewarded in future years. The collapse has been rapid and one can expect some upside to come in the next couple of weeks

Nifty has collapsed about 800 points from the high of July to the current low within 3 weeks and this correction will get rationalized to about 400 points from the low [or 450-500 points if Nifty tanks further]

It is time to shift preferences in the banking sector to mid cap banks as counters like SBI and ICICI have 2 problems

1 - SBI is having intrinsic problems with cost structure and management issues
2 - ICICI is notorious for exposure to high risk derivatives that may suddenly crop out of the blue.

Canara Bank, Corporation Bank, Vijaya Bank, IDBI Bank, HDFC etc are better counters to accumulate now in tranches for both short term upside and long term investments. VIX is still high and should cool down in a few more days. Low margin players should stay out of this market and even if one is a player with high margins, it is critical to take hedged positions in such a way that in case of an adverse trade, the net result is NPNL and capital is preserved.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

EOD Analysis for 17th August 2011 and Outlook for 18th August 2011

Nifty opened on a modest note saw some short-covering and an illusory rally immediately after some Puts were written and then the downward spiral continued. The index may not reflect too much of what happened but one of the most important barometers of Nifty i.e. Banknifty made a new low of 2011 and saw August as well as September futures trading at a discount. CNX IT went down quite a while ago and Banknifty going below 10k [also below 9900 at one point of time] is not a healthy sign at all.

On the face of it, there are plenty of shorts in the system and short-covering or roll-overs are bound to take place. The key point to note is that broader markets are taking extremely steep cuts and with Banknifty sinking below 10050 on EOD basis makes it vulnerable to go all the way down to 9700-9750 levels before staging any meaningful comeback. If a lot of contracts are rolled over, for some time we may see the Banknifty futures contracts trading at further discount taking into account cost of carry; even if there is a strong short-covering rally on Nifty and Banknifty, that can still only come to about 5125-5150 levels on Nifty and 10200 levels on Banknifty.

Hawkish RBI is a temporary source of worry for hedge funds due to already prevailing lack of liquidity in the markets and weak global cues. Unless Nifty takes out 5225 on EOD basis, upside is limited. Today was the 3rd consecutive close below 5092 as well. If this is not reversed tomorrow, then Nifty may not go above 5092 on Thursday as well on EOD basis.

3 things hint towards a potential salvage on Nifty for the next 2 weeks

1 - Aggressive Put Writing that may restrict some downside
2 - Pending Short-Covering
3 - Gaps that remain to be filled.

Hedging positions is very critical in such volatile conditions and the first goal of trading should be capital preservation. One should keep an eye on Banknifty, RIL and LnT as these counters will determine the main course of Nifty; today's EOD with a mild note on Nifty and steep cuts on Banknifty clearly hint that one should look for signs of short covering or fresh shorts that can make Nifty drift lower or move higher.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

EOD Analysis for 16th August 2011 and Outlook for 17th August 2011

The day started with mild cheer aided by positive global cues [read short-covering rally of yesterday]. However, Banknifty continued to remain weak and once the fall went below 5080 levels, the OI in Nifty futures soared to 30 million towards the last hour triggering a sudden drop. There seem to be a lot of shorts in the system pending to be covered which can easily give an upside of about 50 points on Nifty and 125-150 points on Banknifty.

Whilst we have had some weak sessions, we must not forget the fact that there have been a lot of Puts written in the beginning of this series at 5400 strikes which at some point of time need to be crushed. The EW count on Raghuji's blog can be seen which is also hinting at some upside.

That being said, the short-covering relief probably aided by some cheer in capital goods segment can only get Nifty towards 5150 levels; for further upside, we need fresh long positions to be created with volumes that we saw today.

Unless Nifty takes out 5225 level on EOD basis and Banknifty takes out 10600 level on EOD basis, markets will continue to remain weak. The hope for the upside stems from the PEs written in the beginning of the series and the gaps that are pending to be filled.

As far as European markets are concerned, safe to assume that they have all topped out for 2011; the correction has been very severe so one more round of relief rally likely to come in as we move towards September but they will certainly not take out highs prior to Lehman Brothers crises and may try to take out the 2011 highs once before they finally come down crashing. As far as US is concerned, safe to assume that the top is in place however, one should not write off the Dow so easily. A relief rally towards 12k is bound to come towards September end AND / OR towards Christmas.

As far as Nifty is concerned, for Aug series, it remains to be seen how 5225 gets taken out and how Aug expiry pans out.

The levels remain unchanged for both upside and downside. Now the 5177-5225 zone has also become a major resistance and further updates can only be made on the basis of time, price and volume action to these levels

The panic in the market is very much visible vis a vis the upside in gold