Monday, March 19, 2012

EOD Analysis For 19th March 2012 and Outlook For 20th March 2012

OI in Nifty futures came up by 2 million from previous session in the morning and another 2 million added with the falls to 34 odd million in the last hour; with this volume, upside of 150 points can come through and is sufficient for a further fall of 100-150 points also!

VIX data seems to be erring on my ticker a shade below 24! BNF, RIL, LnT, INFY were all in negative and hence I was looking for a VIX factor of at least 25. Significant premium on Nifty futures yet [and showing no signs of coming down!]

BNF almost touched its lower support below 10400 i.e. 10150 on expected lines; any strength in BNF can only be confirmed after 2 consecutive closes above 10400 after which 10800 will provide big hurdle. 2 consecutive closes below 10150 is DANGER for this counter......

Critical levels for Nifty remain unchanged; bulls need to take out 5348 ASAP and then post 2 consecutive closes above 5408 to regain strength; Just a bit of patience is needed until Wed/Thu; market will take a definite direction and provide some very large tradeable swings IMHO:D Expecting falls to be arrested within the 5177-5196 band on closing basis for this week. On the downside, if 5177 is breached on closing basis, then next potential support zone is at 5032-5092; closing below this can reverse almost the whole rally from lows of December!

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