Wednesday, April 4, 2012

EOD Analysis For 4th April 2012 and Outlook For 9th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around 20-21 million and VIX hovering around 21 levels

Critical Levels and Outlook remain unchanged for Nifty as well as BankNifty [expecting BNF to bounce back strongly from 10150-10200 levels on spot values]

Action may continue to be range bound for a few more sessions before a breakdown or breakout IMHO

Nifty seems to be strong and is unlikely to go below 5177 for NEXT WEEK on closing basis unless some major bad news comes through; on the other hand it is struggling to take out 5408 for even 1 session [2 consecutive sessions are required to confirm upside further]

Avoid building OTM option straddles as the odds are heavily stacked in favor of option writers IMHO;
Such pauses and consolidation phases are very healthy for the market;

[IMHO time and price balancing warrants an eventual rate of change @ 10 points per trading day on EOD basis as far as Nifty is concerned. As most experts point out, the bull trend for medium term has been established with 34, 50, 100 EMAs crossing over 200 DMA. Now it is the time to use the corrections and buy on delivery basis. Not sure of going to new highs this year but 5740 on Nifty spot is a logical target on upside and anything above that will be a bonus :D Banking and Infra pack will outperform IMHO for 2012]

Enjoy the loooong weekend;

Next update: Monday EOD......[next week I will be pretty much busy with personal/professional commitments and hence the updates may be sporadic; stay tuned to Raghuji and SMO's blogs for trading levels]

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

EOD Analysis For 3rd April 2012 and Outlook For 4th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures was lower at 21 million today and VIX was surprisingly cool below 21 levels!

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and Banknifty
Premium in nifty futures is still healthy but BNF premiums have shrunk significantly for April series - caution advised for shorts as BNF still is in 'Buy The Dips' mode IMHO....

Updating the image further [first uploaded on 28th Feb '12]

Clearly, option writers paradise if action remains range-bound like this; caution advised for those attempting to buy options as mentioned earlier as well - premium burn rates will be very high and will rapidly shrink further if price action gets stagnant as shown in this image

Monday, April 2, 2012

EOD Analysis for 2nd April 2012 and Outlook For 3rd April 2012

OI in Nifty futures @ 25 million in the morning session; VIX hovering around 22-23 levels
This week being a shorter week, prudence advised as far as options are concerned; the premium burn rate will be pretty fast esp if we get stuck in a range of 100-150 points

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from Friday's levels; markets seem to be strong on daily/weekly time frames and a short term bottom seems in place; falls will provide good buying opportunities from an investment perspective;

Trading levels can be checked on Raghuji's blog for the EW perspective and SMO's blog for EMA perspective

On individual stocks, 2 counters to watch out are Bharti Airtel and Tata Steel; [rarely do I put individual counters on the blog and these are exceptions from my end :D]

Bharti Airtel: If it manages 2 consecutive closes above 340, it may race to 355-360 levels as well in the subsequent session

Tata Steel: 2 consecutive closes above 475 and the counter may race to 500-520 levels [and this will be very closely linked to Nifty's performance as well ;) Last week, Tata Steel and LnT were the first to confirm bullish divergences IMHO]

Other Updates
Pleased to inform that RCG[ji] is back in action and now he is kicking bhootnees :D

Vishal's operation was pretty much successful but he is is under observation in the hospital as per the last update I got;