EOD Analysis For 2nd March 2012 and Outlook For 5th March 2012

Gap-down @ open but plugged during the day; volumes are still pretty good with OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 28.5 million mark; VIX shuttling between 27-28 and premium on Nifty futures still pretty high.

Critical Levels and outlook remain unchanged; it is good to see such consolidation phases and to the extent 5177-5196 [5200 rounded] holds on closing basis, markets are tilted in favor of bulls.[36 consecutive sessions in a row now and still counting] There is liquidity in the system and whilst there are some uncertainties in the coming week and next, positive surprises can be expected to be greeted with loads of greenery on the bourses [and vice versa for negative surprises]

Trading levels are covered by Raghuji [with vishesh tippannee from wave rider and rcg[ji] when required] and SMO well so I need not re-invent the wheel :D

Next Update for Nifty: Monday EOD

EOD Analysis For 1st March 2012 and Outlook For 2nd March 2012

Gap-down and then trade in negative territory for the day; VIX again shooting above 27 [almost 28 actually at one point of time] and the volumes were pretty much unchanged from yesterday. Premiums still pretty high on Nifty futures and price fluctuations exactly as described by Raghuji earlier this week!

5177-5196 band has survived for the 35th consecutive session and IMHO, bears should treat this as the floor for the next 20 odd sessions [as mentioned yesterday, markets are uncertain but nevertheless, we need to keep this in mind; on the other hand if 5150 breached on downside on closing basis then next halt around 5032-5092 zone! Close below 5032 can reverse the entire rally from the lows of December but with so much liquidity around, it seems unlikely at least for March series]

Such pauses and profit-booking sessions are good and even at 5200, it is just a 400-odd point retracement from the meteoric rise of almost 1100 points. [38.2% is pretty common after such large upside movements]

The poo-poo about no QE from US is just a distorted noise!!![come on it is obvious that Uncle Ben and Senor Draghi are playing a concerted game with regards to liquidity injections, and mind well they are good pals right from university days; it was wishful thinking on part of markets IMHO to think that ECB liquidity will be matched with optimistic QE3 comments from Uncle Ben on the same day!! As long as possible, as much as possible, IMHO they will take turns one at a time for providing liquidity injections, thereby enabling dollar and euro to grind against each other and collapse slowly - they are both falling not rising!]

Nevertheless coming to Nifty maiya, critical levels and outlook remain unchanged; consolidation is happening at a slightly lower level than expected; [5408 to 5532 was the expected consolidation zone]

5408 is a level that bulls need to conquer asap which brings resistance around 5450-5480 [the zone towards the high of Monday's long candle and yesterday's high; this is a zone where a lot of shorts will jump for cover if momentum on upside is convincing] A close above 5450 will almost certainly invite a retest of 5532 and may go upto 5580-5608 also.

[HHHHHHH - does that mean Nagi, the bear has turned bull - no I am still bearish over the longer time frame but for the short term, price, volume, time are indicating that the scale is tilted in favor of bulls - 35 sessions in a row without breaching 5200 is a significant achievement on part of bulls]

And here, I must quote what Raghuji keeps reminding us from time to time; Jo Dikhta Hai Woh Hota Nahi - Jo Hota Hai Woh Dikhta Nahi :D

EOD Analysis For 29th February 2012 and Outlook For 1st March 2012

Extremely positive start to the day and as Raghuji also mentioned in his blog yesterday that we are in for some days of high volatility and some days of boring flat sessions; at one stage all the gains of the day were given up only to have some quick recovery as well. Savvy traders can do well in such environments whilst some may find it difficult to trade as such frequent change in direction can trigger stop losses on either side; all that I can say is take positional trades and it is ok to stay out during whipsaw sessions. Just repeating the mantra of Harshal bhai aka spiderman - trade little - trade healthy

Volumes were a bit lacklustre in the morning despite the rise with OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 26.5 million mark but after Europe open, another 1.2 odd million was added to the OI in Nifty futures [this has become a routine affair now] VIX almost touching 27 at one stage and that signals caution for bulls. Premiums on Nifty futures still very high [the justification IMHO is that the majority consensus is on the bull side and the current series is longer by a week than usual giving some additional time value to the FnO segment]

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from yesterday.

Today marked the 34th consecutive close above the 5177-5196 band on closing basis. If this holds out tomorrow [which as of now seems like it will], then bulls and bears both may take this as the floor for another 20 odd trading sessions [justification given in yesterday's post]. Of course, there are uncertainties in market always but it is important to mentally make note of high probable v/s low probable outcomes [and switch gears when the appropriate signal is received]

EOD Analysis For 28th February 2012 and Outlook For 29th February 2012

Positive start to the day aided by positive global cues and OI in Nifty futures in the morning session @ 26.2 odd million and 1 million added after Europe open. VIX cooled down and stayed around 26 which is a respite for bulls. There is liquidity and a lot of optimism in the markets right now.

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged; tomorrow's close will be crucial as it marks the monthly close candle. Also the critical band of 5177-5196 are expected to hold out tomorrow in case of a sharp profit booking session; whether it holds out on Thursday will be interesting to observe as it has the potential to set the floor for both bulls and bears for another 2 weeks [following 2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55 sequence] Today is the 33rd consecutive close above 5177-5196 band.

I am very lazy to draw charts and then paste them unlike my seniors and comrades [typing comes more easily to me!] For a change, an illustration from my end [the box comments are self explanatory]

EOD Analysis For 27th February 2012 and Outlook For 28th February 2012

Weakness on Nifty charts in the first hour itself and the OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 27 million mark [1.5 million added with the falls and Europe opening] VIX spooked up to 27.51
Premiums on Nifty futures are still very high!

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from Friday.

Today marked the first close below 5408 and the 32nd consecutive close above the 5177-5196 zone; expect that to hold out on closing basis for the next couple of sessions as well i.e. until 29th Feb '12. It will be interesting to see if the 5177-5196 band  holds out on 1st March '12 on closing basis [that will mark 35 consecutive sessions and open up the odds of 5177-5196 holding out on closing basis for another 20 sessions - will it happen???? time only will tell]

Such corrections [read profit booking sessions] are healthy for the market and the fall is still not tremendous as compared to the rise from 4531; [with such meteoric rises, 50% corrections are quite common and of course that too will not happen in a linear fashion] Now it is crucial for bulls to get into the 5408-5532 band as possible and in case of corrections, ensure that they hold out 5177-5196 on closing basis; if that is breached for 2 sessions in a row, next potential halts only at 5032-5092 levels. There is no perpetual rise or fall;

[Holding 5032 on closing basis in March series is extremely crucial as breaching that can reverse the entire rally from the lows of Dec. At least for March series, IMHO that will not happen with so much liquidity flowing all over the system - but markets never cease to surprise! I would here prefer to follow my seniors advice, one day at a time, one wave at a time and of course edge of hedge crucial as usual]