Friday, May 11, 2012

EOD Analysis For 11th May 2012 and Outlook For 14th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still moving around the 22 million mark and VIX is notching up but certainly not reflecting reality of prices!

Today was the 4th consecutive close below the crucial 5032 support and it also marks the weekly close; we may not close above 5032 on Monday also; bulls need to stage a close above 5032 by Tuesday's close or else we can be below 5032 until next Thursday [following the 2-3-5-8 sequence]

Critical Levels and Outlook remain unchanged from previous posts; [the updated charts in yesterday's post should be self explanatory]

Enjoy the weekend and I will catch up with you on Monday EOD. Hope the shopping carts are active for delivery based buying - all seasoned hands always keep harping 'Buy Fear, Sell Greed and adhere to Stop Losses' but we fail to pull the trigger on all 3 signals most often than not :D

Thursday, May 10, 2012

EOD Analysis For 10th May 2012 and Outlook For 11th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures marginally up by 1 million to 23 million and VIX still not reflecting the correct price action
Critical levels and outlook for both Nifty and BankNifty remain unchanged from previous post.

The deep discounts in BNF futures are a bit disturbing; we may have to wait till the middle of next week to see the regular 30-50 point premium and that too if spot prices start moving up significantly forcing shorts to cover

Will update 2 charts later in the day tonight with EOD price action on Nifty and BankNifty

Updated Charts [was excited with the IPL matches last night and didn't post these charts - lazy me....]

Nifty Daily Chart



BankNifty Daily Chart


Wednesday, May 9, 2012

EOD Analysis For 9th May 2012 and Outlook For 10th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 21-22 million mark [have already factored May, June, July futures] and significant premium erosion in both Nifty and BankNifty futures [with BNF futures still going at significant discounts] VIX slowly marching up but definitely not reflecting true price action [it was swinging between 26-28 earlier this year at the same price levels!]

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty from previous posts.

Today was the 2nd consecutive close below 5032; if Nifty does not manage to close above this level tomorrow, safe to assume that this level won't be surpassed this week.

On the stocks and sectors front, Reliance needs to take out 725, LnT 1225, Tata Steel 450 and of course my barometer BankNifty has to take out 9550 on closing basis to revive hopes for bulls IMHO

As far as investments are concerned, I hope the shopping carts are open now; the pending upside target of 5740 for 2012 is still intact as long as we do not breach the lows of Dec '11 IMHO. In fact a lot of counters are trading at levels closer to the lower levels earlier this year

Personal Clarification:
Time and again, I keep getting queries that my posts are confusing; one one hand I point out to potential downside on Nifty / BankNifty but still keep advocating buying

Again repeating myself that trading and investments are 2 different aspects all together;
I can switch between a bull and a bear as far as shorter time frames are concerned for futures that I trade - that is just for a 2-3 day time frame; as far as equities and index linked ETFs are concerned, I am bullish not just for the short term but longer term as well. When it comes to front-line equities, there is no doubt that falls are welcome opportunities. These are taken with 2-3 year time frames [minimum holding period is 1 year anyways to reduce the tax burden on gains, if any] So when I say good buying opportunity, it is purely in equities, against cash and not against margin that stays in the demat account. It needs a lot of patience and the right mindset to ignore the short term fluctuations.

I really find it surprising that there are instances when people were more than willing to pour in savings when front line counters were at highs [LnT at 1600+, JP Associates at 100+, IFCI at 65+, Hindalco at 170+ etc etc and now when these are available at much lower levels, people are reluctant to buy whilst still look to average positions in Punj Lloyd, KS Oils, Shri AshtaVinayak etc etc] - closing with Guruji's mantra To Each His Own - HHHHHH

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

EOD Analysis For 8th May 2012 and Outlook For 9th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 20-21 million mark and VIX is surprisingly cool not really reflecting the true status of the volatility in the market

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty from yesterday's post [please refer to the image posted in the updated post last evening] The close below 5032 does not augur well for bulls; need to see how things pan out tomorrow


Monday, May 7, 2012

EOD Analysis For 7th May 2012 and Outlook For 8th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 21 million mark although the falls as well as the rise from the ashes have been meteoric; 5032 survived on closing basis on expected lines [but still some caution advised till 5225 is not taken out as the intraday breach to sub 5k levels keeps the possibility of backtesting 5032 again and possibly 4944 also alive; 61.8% retracement of the rise from 4531 to 5629 comes to 4950 whilst 50% comes @ 5080 and that was convincingly breached; above 5225, indicates that down move is over and until then the other option is still alive :D]

BNF fell more than expected but was great to see the short covering round from the lows of the day; is it out of the woods???? Not yet

Will update 2 charts later tonight with today's Nifty and BankNifty EOD charts

Do watch out Guruji's shopping cart for investments based on deliveries; [as most readers are aware, I prefer to go slow and steady with 60%-70% allocation to NiftyBees, BankBees, InfraBees as far as investments are concerned; for the balance, my list is very simple with LnT, Dabur, Cipla, Biocon, Ashok Leyland, JP Associates; just added some units of IRB infra since the falls below 150 with a 2-3 year target of 225+] Raghuji and Wave Rider are far more experienced as far as picking individual stocks are concerned.

Update with Charts

Nifty EOD Chart

BankNifty EOD Chart