Friday, July 13, 2012

EOD Analysis For 13th July 2012 and Outlook For 16th July 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around yesterday's levels i.e. 26 million apprx [taking July and August futures into account; wef Monday, July, August and September futures will be factored] and VIX is excessively cool and definitely not reflecting correct price action

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty

Next week can prove to be very exciting as far as trading is concerned with a negative bias [the negative bias is my personal bias remember] Options trades may be exciting next week with straddles [better to go with OTM strangles of August series options with no more than 30% of trading capital for options and a 15-20 point stop loss for the losing leg for Nifty. BankNifty options may be avoided due to their illiquid nature and better to straddle via futures]

EOD / EOW illustrative images for Nifty and BankNifty will be updated latest by tomorrow afternoon

Enjoy your weekend

Nifty EOD
Nifty EOW
BankNifty EOD
BankNifty EOW

Thursday, July 12, 2012

EOD Analysis For 12th July 2012 and Outlook For 13th July 2012

History repeats itself with INFY dropping over 8% on open and steep cuts witnessed on all sectors [the expectation was a sectoral churn for today but that was not to be!]

OI in Nifty futures only had 1 million added compared to yesterday despite the fall today and premiums are still healthy on Nifty futures. Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from previous post and closing below 5225 can inflict more pain for bulls. The premium on BNF futures are a bit disturbing

Just as was the case in previous quarter, one may look at a potential short-covering opportunity in CNXIT for a 50% retracement of the fall after TCS results are out; the fall started from 6200 odd levels on CNXIT July futures and a bottom may be formed in the 5600 zone thereby, giving an opportunity for about 200-300 points

The typical behavior of CNXIT around results season was covered in this April '12 post 

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

EOD Analysis For 11th July and Outlook For 12th July 2012

OI in Nifty futures still unchanged and VIX is excessively cool

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty. Sectoral churns may be observed for a couple of sessions before the volatility of next week [i.e. INFY may surge whilst banks may start disappointing a bit or the other way around]

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

EOD Analysis For 10th July 2012 and Outlook For 11th July 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 25 million mark and the trend remains unclear.

Critical levels for Nifty and BankNifty revised as follows

For Nifty:

Supports continue to be 5169-5225-5280
Closing below 5225 can invite a lot of shorts in the system and closing below 5169 will almost certainly invite  a retest of 5032 levels. Current volumes are sufficient to trigger the fall, except that there will be some delay in the fall with these volumes

Resistances continue to be 5325-5348-5378-5408
Closing above 5378-5408 [most important level is 5408 IMHO] will invite a retest of 5532 on upside but a 10% to 15% increase in volumes are a must to sustain the upsides [current volume can only take Nifty upto 5348 IMHO]

For BankNifty:

Supports at 10200-10250 band and the 10400-10450 band; steeper cuts can be anticipated with a close below 10200;

Resistances now at the 10750-10800 band

Illustrative Images for Reference

In terms of time, next week should be very exciting for trade with a downward bias in all likelihood [please note that the downward bias is my personal outlook considering 377 days from the 6th July '11 top of 5740; ultimately markets will determine the prices and volumes and of the critical levels are surpassed, we have to be agile enough to steer our positions in the direction of the then prevailing trend :D. Regardless of direction, the time frame will certainly be exciting for traders with a lot of opportunities]