EOD Analysis For 4th May 2012 and Outlook For 7th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 20-21 mill mark still and VIX has increased compared to yesterday but still not reflecting core price action.

Critical Levels remain unchanged for Nifty from previous posts [expecting a bounce back from the 5032-5092 band]

For BankNifty, the downside support has broken [please refer to the updated post yesterday with the BNF daily chart] Only respite was some premium was restored to the BNF May futures after trading the first 5 days @ discount; one round of short covering expected in the 9700-9750 region for about 150-200 points; safe traders should wait and buy above 9900 on May Futures price IMHO

EOD Analysis For 3rd May 2012 and Outlook For 4th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 20 million mark and VIX seemingly under control [though in reality it is not!]


Nifty is still stuck in the same tight range of the Falling Wedge [ref updated image below and also note the volume scale below for April / May series]

On a time scale, it is indicating that in the period around 14th May to 16th May we should be able to see a decisive break-out or break-down in price


Critical Levels remain unchanged for Nifty
For BankNifty, will provide an update tomorrow as the dip below 10150 (a very crucial support level) is alarming and need to see how prices behave tomorrow as well.

Adding The Image For BankNifty
Tomorrow is very critical and so is holding on to 10050 on closing basis; rest is all given in the image itself

EOD Analysis For 2nd May 2012 and Outlook For 3rd May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 20-21 million mark and VIX is still below 20!

Critical levels and Outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty

Nifty Support Levels: 5032-5092-5136-5177-5225 [can stage a breakdown below 5032 opening 144 points to the downside]

Nifty Resistance Levels: 5280-5310-5348-5408 [can stage a breakout above 5348 and 2 consecutive closes above 5408 opens up a potential 144 point move to the upside]

As of now for May series, both breakout and breakdown scenarios are least probable IMHO and we should see consolidation within 5032-5310 range and this is still pretty good to trade via futures. It is an option writers paradise :D

[BNF Range therefore IMHO translates to 10150 and 10750 with same breakdown and breakout conditions]

EOD Analysis For 30th April 2012 and Outlook For 2nd May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 19 million mark making it difficult to sustain upsides [1.2 million added as we approached the Europe Open session]; VIX surprisingly cool [now well below 20!!]

Would again like to remind readers that OTM option straddles / strangles may not be very fruitful as long as Nifty is trading within a tight range of 200 points and that too, in a grinding fashion

Critical Levels and Outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty;

As far as trading is concerned, option writers still continue to rule the roost and for investors, corrections are good to buy into for deliveries; as of now, I still feel it is difficult to go below 5032 on closing basis on Nifty for May series but markets have their own ways...... ;-)

For tomorrow let us enjoy the May Day..................