Monday, March 26, 2012

EOD Analysis For 26th March 2012 and Outlook For 27th March 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around 34 million on opening itself [37 million at close on expected lines as we move towards expiry] and rationalization on Nifty premiums continued today as well; BNF also had some strong corrections within the first 20 minutes of trade. 2 more days to go prior to expiry and such volatility will continue; fortunately VIX values in the morning were realistic for a change and compensated for the erroneous values last week IMHO.

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty; to the extent 5150 holds out [worst case scenario 5032-5092 hold out, medium term trend is on the upside IMHO] However strength to be confirmed only after taking out 5348 [most important is 5408 for 2 consecutive sessions] Full throttle weakness with a close below 5032!!]

From an investment perspective, dips can be good buying opportunities especially in the infrastructure and banking themes. [IMHO best bets continue to be NiftyBees, BankBees, InfraBees for a major portion of the capital as they automatically capture at least the systemic risks - most of the experienced investors will advise the same thing and I am just following their footsteps.]

Last but not the least, an alternate price/time possibility with the condition for invalidation specified considering that normal Rate of Change for Nifty on EOD basis evens out to apprx 10 points per trading  day over a longer period of time

No comments: