Monday, February 27, 2012

EOD Analysis For 27th February 2012 and Outlook For 28th February 2012

Weakness on Nifty charts in the first hour itself and the OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 27 million mark [1.5 million added with the falls and Europe opening] VIX spooked up to 27.51
Premiums on Nifty futures are still very high!

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from Friday.

Today marked the first close below 5408 and the 32nd consecutive close above the 5177-5196 zone; expect that to hold out on closing basis for the next couple of sessions as well i.e. until 29th Feb '12. It will be interesting to see if the 5177-5196 band  holds out on 1st March '12 on closing basis [that will mark 35 consecutive sessions and open up the odds of 5177-5196 holding out on closing basis for another 20 sessions - will it happen???? time only will tell]

Such corrections [read profit booking sessions] are healthy for the market and the fall is still not tremendous as compared to the rise from 4531; [with such meteoric rises, 50% corrections are quite common and of course that too will not happen in a linear fashion] Now it is crucial for bulls to get into the 5408-5532 band as possible and in case of corrections, ensure that they hold out 5177-5196 on closing basis; if that is breached for 2 sessions in a row, next potential halts only at 5032-5092 levels. There is no perpetual rise or fall;

[Holding 5032 on closing basis in March series is extremely crucial as breaching that can reverse the entire rally from the lows of Dec. At least for March series, IMHO that will not happen with so much liquidity flowing all over the system - but markets never cease to surprise! I would here prefer to follow my seniors advice, one day at a time, one wave at a time and of course edge of hedge crucial as usual]

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