EOD Analysis For 24th February 2012 and Outlook For 27th February 2012

OI in Nifty futures dropped to 26 million [not surprising after expiry] and profit booking would be fairly logical. VIX hovering around 25


Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from yesterday;

Expecting some volatility on both upside and downside towards the budget week based on what we saw last year
[An initial spike as the budget was being delivered, then a sharp fall and then a huge climb of almost 200 points on a Friday after the budget was digested - so the pattern of ups and downs can be expected to continue during the budget week this time as well - best played by straddling OTM options IMHO]

For Satyaji et all - I had mentioned in one of my posts earlier as well that as far as major swings are concerned, I just take the following timelines [still learning and sharing what I know so far]

Dates Primer:

4 critical dates that remain unchanged every year
21st March - Spring Equinox
21st June - Summer Solastice
22nd September - Fall Equinox
21st/22nd December - Winter Solastice

For the other critical dates, take the swing tops and swing bottoms of the previous year and add 377 calendar days to it - around that time, a major swing opportunity will come through [though direction needs to be observed on current trends. Here, tools like EW, SAR, Trendlines help IMHO]

Last year, we had the following swing tops and bottoms

5th Nov '10 -> Swing Top of 6338; 377 days later was 16th Nov '11 and hence I said there will be a fall around this period - partial tukka I agree :D
4th Jan '11 -> Swing Top of 6181; 377 days later was 15th Jan '12 [I was expecting downside here based on Nov '11 action but trend was UP :(]

11th Feb '11 -> Swing Bottom of 5177; 377 days later was 22nd Feb '12 [Based on Jan '12 experience I was expecting a fall around this period :D but stood corrected with the term 'bearish' We got a correction of almost 140 points from the high of the day!]

For future dates of 2012, we need to see trend at that time but pretty sure that the time frame around these time zones will provide good tradeable swings ;-)

6th April '11 -> Swing Top of 5944; 377 days later will be 16th Apr '12 [2012 being a leap year]

20th June '11 -> Swing Low of 5196; 377 days later will be 30th June '12 [also note that 21st June comes in this period only!]


8th Jul '11 -> Swing Top of 5740; 377 days later will be 18th Jul '12

26th Aug '11 -> Swing Bottom of 4720; 377 days later will be 6th Sep '12

28th Oct '11 -> Swing Top of 5399; 377 days later will be 8th Nov '12

20th Dec '11 -> Swing Bottom of 4531; 377 days later will be 30th Dec '12

Full Moon days have larger odds of being down days

After some costly lessons in summer '11[got ripped off with Puts from 5550 to 5850 and revising stop loss at every rise of 50 points!] and subsequently under guidance of my seniors, I am trying to imbibe what spiderman keeps saying - 'trade little, trade healthy' and always as wave rider says, trade with the edge of hedge because we are all human; if not sure of a trade setup, stay out. So now one has the support/resistance levels [given last Friday] as well as major time periods for 2012 [given today]. I sincerely hope it helps readers.....
The reason why I am timing the primer posts around this period is because it is very special to me personally. This week marks a one year anniversary when I first came across my seniors / gurus on mmb i.e. Wave Rider, Raghuji, rcg[ji] Harshal bhai, Suranaaji, Sarmaji and comrades like Shriram, Bhatiaji, Sunny bro and the journey has been extremely fruitful so far. Today's post is dedicated to my seniors. All I have is 'Attitude of Gratitude' for the way you literally held my fingers and taught me the basics.

AAAAAAAAHHHHHH - Too much gyaan Nagi! Enjoy your weekend. [Hope you will also enjoy the tit-bits on diversification v/s diworsification from time to time :D]