Thursday, February 16, 2012

EOD Analysis For 16th February 2012 and Outlook For 17th February 2012

Whilst the global cues were not positive, the price action can at best be described as routine profit booking IMHO as far as Nifty is concerned; considering the meteoric rise Nifty has had in the last 2 months. OI in Nifty futures pretty much the same as yesterday; VIX still below 24 - so no signs of danger yet.

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged.

5408-5532 has been a consolidation area for umpteen sessions in 2011 also; it takes some time for Nifty to convincingly take out 5532 on closing basis with volume and momentum; should that happen now, then the next assault by bulls can at 5655-5690 with minor resistance at 5608

Breach of 5408 on downside on 2 consecutive daily closes or one weekly close will encourage more shorts - until then the scale is tilted in favor of bulls.

As far as the critical dates are concerned, yes I did mention that 16th Feb to 22nd Feb do have a negative tinge with highest weightage around 20th Feb to 22nd Feb; however, the severeity of this negative tinge is questionable now [tomorrow's close should provide some clue]

Today was the 13th session above the critical band of 5177-5196 zone; if it holds out tomorrow as well [very likely that it will] then in all likelihood, this will stay as the bottom on closing basis for another 8 sessions [following 2-3-5-8-13-21 sequence] i.e. until end of Feb'12 calendar month.

Review of Time Forecasts of Recent Past for good tradeable swings

Period                           Forecast                  Verdict
22nd Sep '11                 Bearish                      Success
16th-22nd Nov '11        Bearish                     Success
21st Dec '11                  Bullish                       Success
17th Jan '11                   Bearish                     Flop

The sample size is too small and unless the track record improves, I would myself take it with a pinch of salt [hedging is very critical regardless of personal bias always]

Highly Sensitive Dates For the next few weeks [direction to be determined basis price action]

20th Feb to 22nd Feb 2012 [personally bearish]
21st Mar to 6th Apr 2012
17th Apr to 20th Apr 2012

1 comment:

naa bujji said...

gr8 report/analysis sir , i was following it recently..if i would have done it earlier.. would have not lost money.. umm .. too late.. being a novice trader i know worth having this information

request lord that he will take care of you and your family with all good things in life..