Whilst the global cues were not positive, the price action can at best be described as routine profit booking IMHO as far as Nifty is concerned; considering the meteoric rise Nifty has had in the last 2 months. OI in Nifty futures pretty much the same as yesterday; VIX still below 24 - so no signs of danger yet.
Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged.
5408-5532 has been a consolidation area for umpteen sessions in 2011 also; it takes some time for Nifty to convincingly take out 5532 on closing basis with volume and momentum; should that happen now, then the next assault by bulls can at 5655-5690 with minor resistance at 5608
Breach of 5408 on downside on 2 consecutive daily closes or one weekly close will encourage more shorts - until then the scale is tilted in favor of bulls.
As far as the critical dates are concerned, yes I did mention that 16th Feb to 22nd Feb do have a negative tinge with highest weightage around 20th Feb to 22nd Feb; however, the severeity of this negative tinge is questionable now [tomorrow's close should provide some clue]
Today was the 13th session above the critical band of 5177-5196 zone; if it holds out tomorrow as well [very likely that it will] then in all likelihood, this will stay as the bottom on closing basis for another 8 sessions [following 2-3-5-8-13-21 sequence] i.e. until end of Feb'12 calendar month.
Review of Time Forecasts of Recent Past for good tradeable swings
Period Forecast Verdict
22nd Sep '11 Bearish Success
16th-22nd Nov '11 Bearish Success
21st Dec '11 Bullish Success
17th Jan '11 Bearish Flop
The sample size is too small and unless the track record improves, I would myself take it with a pinch of salt [hedging is very critical regardless of personal bias always]
Highly Sensitive Dates For the next few weeks [direction to be determined basis price action]
20th Feb to 22nd Feb 2012 [personally bearish]
21st Mar to 6th Apr 2012
17th Apr to 20th Apr 2012
Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged.
5408-5532 has been a consolidation area for umpteen sessions in 2011 also; it takes some time for Nifty to convincingly take out 5532 on closing basis with volume and momentum; should that happen now, then the next assault by bulls can at 5655-5690 with minor resistance at 5608
Breach of 5408 on downside on 2 consecutive daily closes or one weekly close will encourage more shorts - until then the scale is tilted in favor of bulls.
As far as the critical dates are concerned, yes I did mention that 16th Feb to 22nd Feb do have a negative tinge with highest weightage around 20th Feb to 22nd Feb; however, the severeity of this negative tinge is questionable now [tomorrow's close should provide some clue]
Today was the 13th session above the critical band of 5177-5196 zone; if it holds out tomorrow as well [very likely that it will] then in all likelihood, this will stay as the bottom on closing basis for another 8 sessions [following 2-3-5-8-13-21 sequence] i.e. until end of Feb'12 calendar month.
Review of Time Forecasts of Recent Past for good tradeable swings
Period Forecast Verdict
22nd Sep '11 Bearish Success
16th-22nd Nov '11 Bearish Success
21st Dec '11 Bullish Success
17th Jan '11 Bearish Flop
The sample size is too small and unless the track record improves, I would myself take it with a pinch of salt [hedging is very critical regardless of personal bias always]
Highly Sensitive Dates For the next few weeks [direction to be determined basis price action]
20th Feb to 22nd Feb 2012 [personally bearish]
21st Mar to 6th Apr 2012
17th Apr to 20th Apr 2012
1 comment:
gr8 report/analysis sir , i was following it recently..if i would have done it earlier.. would have not lost money.. umm .. too late.. being a novice trader i know worth having this information
request lord that he will take care of you and your family with all good things in life..
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