Thursday, April 12, 2012

EOD Analysis For 12th April 2012 and Outlook For 13th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around 19.5 mill - 20 mill mark and such low volumes overall on the bourses won't be able to sustain the upside. Though the risk reward ratio is still in favor of buying the dips in a staggered manner.

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged. Expecting 5177 to hold out on closing basis tomorrow as well on Nifty and 10150 to hold out on BankNifty. [Intraday dips on Nifty may go below 5177 but the odds of going below 5135 are low and 5109 can be expected to provide a very strong bounce back level; if that is breached with volumes and momentum, then bulls have a problem - BIG TIME :D]

Next week will be far more exciting as Nifty usually offers large trading swings when we approach the 377 day period from swing highs and lows of the previous year [16th April marks the exact 377 day from the 6th April 2011 high of 5944; so the period 16th to 18th April will be very likely turn out to be exciting to play for and Im looking forward to it] That being said I would also like to reiterate that one should refrain from the temptation of going for OTM Options; Also one should avoid guessing the direction in advance as tomorrow is the last trading day of this week and by Monday, there will be significant erosion of time value on options. Better to take fresh guard on Monday IMHO

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