Tuesday, April 10, 2012

EOD Analysis For 10th April 2012 and Outlook For 11th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures dropped a shade lower to 19 million on open today [1.2 mill added after Europe open] VIX slowly inching towards the 23 mark though it cooled towards the end;

Premiums on Nifty futures are healthy but premiums on BNF futures have dropped considerably in April series [normally they go at a 50 point premium for current series but last 3 sessions or so, the BNF April futures are hardly commanding a premium of more than 20-25 points;]

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty

Expect consolidation in Nifty in the range 5177-5348 on closing basis for this week
2 consecutive closes above 5408 will affirm strength of the upside.
2 consecutive closes above 5532 will give targets of 5608-5655-5690
[Odds of going to these levels in April series are very low!]

A close below 5177 will invite retest of 5032-5092 band [very very critical] If 5032 broken on closing basis, almost the entire rally from lows of Dec may be reversed [Odds of this scenario also in April series are very low!!]

2 consecutive closes above 10200 and BNF will retest 10400-10450 levels
2 consecutive closes above 10400 and BNF will retest 10750-10800 levels [very very strong resistance in this band]

10150 is very very critical for BNF;
2 consecutive closes below 10150 and one should brace for deeper cuts on BNF

Exact trading levels and reversals covered by Raghuji and SMO; timing wise, next week can be very exciting and Im looking forward to it.

On a stock specific basis, INFY has taken steep cuts over the last 3 to 5 trading sessions and hence negative results may be a non-event later this week.

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