OI in Nifty futures dropped to 26 million on expected lines, today being the first session of the new series. VIX cooled off significantly; over the next 8 to 10 trading sessions, we may observe call premiums[the extrinsic value part of it] dropping faster than put premiums as prices gyrate
Premiums on futures are pretty high at this point of time
Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty;
Recap For Nifty:
For Upside:
Initial sign of strength above 5348 and then 2 consecutive closes above 5408. Once this is achieved, there will be resistance at 5532 which if taken out with conviction opens Nifty for 5580-5608-5655-5690-5740 [the upsides will need to be supported with strong volumes]
For Downside:
Initial signs of weakness with a close below the 5177-5196 band after which 5032-5092 band will be the critical support; if this is also broken on closing basis, the corrections will be much deeper and the outlook given in the illustration below will get invalidated.
Recap For BankNifty:
For Upside: 2 consecutive closes above 10200 and BNF opens for 10400+ and 2 consecutive closes above 10400 opens BNF for retest of 10800 [very strong resistance level]
For Downside: 2 consecutive closes below 10150 and BNF opens for another 150-200 points to the downside [already happened prior to expiry once and tested 9900 levels]
Updating the Nifty EOD chart
The only other aspect of price action has been that for the last 3 weeks, the resistance offered by the red trendlines [to the downside from 5630] have not been taken out with conviction yet; if volumes and momentum favor Nifty next week we should be able to see a breakout to the upside
One leg down is due but whether that happens from here or from further up depends [50% retracement can be expected and if it is from here, that would mean {5306-5136}/2 + 5136 i.e. 5221; else whatever is the high created next week] Today's close is also significant as it is the monthly close for March as well and the closing has been strong on all 3 time frames i.e. Daily/Weekly/Monthly
Sensitive Dates for April series as follows
2nd April [Direction uncertain :(]
5th April [Direction to be determined later]
16-18April - Very Very Important as this period coincides with 377 days from the 6th April '11 high of 5944 [My personal bias is negative for this period but will revisit as we come closer to this date]
23rd April [Direction to be determined later]
Premiums on futures are pretty high at this point of time
Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty;
Recap For Nifty:
For Upside:
Initial sign of strength above 5348 and then 2 consecutive closes above 5408. Once this is achieved, there will be resistance at 5532 which if taken out with conviction opens Nifty for 5580-5608-5655-5690-5740 [the upsides will need to be supported with strong volumes]
For Downside:
Initial signs of weakness with a close below the 5177-5196 band after which 5032-5092 band will be the critical support; if this is also broken on closing basis, the corrections will be much deeper and the outlook given in the illustration below will get invalidated.
Recap For BankNifty:
For Upside: 2 consecutive closes above 10200 and BNF opens for 10400+ and 2 consecutive closes above 10400 opens BNF for retest of 10800 [very strong resistance level]
For Downside: 2 consecutive closes below 10150 and BNF opens for another 150-200 points to the downside [already happened prior to expiry once and tested 9900 levels]
Updating the Nifty EOD chart
One leg down is due but whether that happens from here or from further up depends [50% retracement can be expected and if it is from here, that would mean {5306-5136}/2 + 5136 i.e. 5221; else whatever is the high created next week] Today's close is also significant as it is the monthly close for March as well and the closing has been strong on all 3 time frames i.e. Daily/Weekly/Monthly
Sensitive Dates for April series as follows
2nd April [Direction uncertain :(]
5th April [Direction to be determined later]
16-18April - Very Very Important as this period coincides with 377 days from the 6th April '11 high of 5944 [My personal bias is negative for this period but will revisit as we come closer to this date]
23rd April [Direction to be determined later]
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