Finally some increase in volumes today; a positive session saw OI in Nifty futures at about 24.5 million in the first half and another million added after Europe opened in the Green. As usual BNF [It is significant that BNF has slowly appreciated by almost 1000 points in 2 weeks time and has potential for some more - markets are trying to discount positive factors in advance!] led the gains and broader markets performed well but CNXIT was pretty lacklustre [with such a rise, was expecting to see 6425-6450 levels in CNXIT but that did not happen]
VIX below 25 - this gives a lot of relief to bulls for the time being.
IMHO, eventual targets are 7500-7550 odd levels on BNF spot and 5600-5700 levels on CNXIT before starting the fresh leg up.
In terms of relief rally, the minimal target for Nifty has been achieved [please see Raghuji's post made yesterday] and is slowly moving towards the optimal target.
So where do we go from here
Critical Resistances: 4880-4911-4944-4994
Critical Supports: 4640-4690-4728-4751-4800
Today's close above 4840 and close to the day's high is very significant IMHO and we should not be surprised to see an attempt towards 4944-4994 [provided volumes increase by another 10% at least]
Now only a close below 4690 will usher the panic once again and this is still very much possible during this series [to fill in the pending downside gap]
Other Updates:
Dow: Still has potential to go to 12450-500 levels and only 2 consecutive closes below 11500 can confirm that the relief rallies are over on this one and we have to say adios to higher levels for a long time.
FTSE: 5650 odd levels were expected on Santa Rally but they came in the New Year's week. This one too may just make one valiant attempt towards 5700-5750 before heading down and eventual target is 4900 in the next few weeks. Confirmation that relief rally is over with 2 consecutive closes below 5550 and full weakness after a weekly close below 5350
DAX: Perhaps, a flick towards the 6350-6400 levels with a dovish ECB stance before heading downwards to sub-5k levels. Weakness to be confirmed with 2 consecutive closes below 5750
Euro Stoxx 50: Weakness to be confirmed only after a close below 2150
Euro-Dollar: These are relief rallies and the pair is on its set path to 1.25 where some respite might come with eventual targets of 1.1850 odd levels.
Precious Metals:
Gold and Silver may see USD 1700 and USD 33 odd levels respectively in the near future in a relief rally but these will be opportunities to book profits as eventual targets are USD 1350-USD 1450 for Gold and USD 22-USD 23 odd levels for silver on Comex; the correction in Rollar will further impact prices in Indian markets IMHO
One should remember that nothing has changed fundamentally over the last 1 month [or for that matter last 2 weeks!] Some may call it the January effect, some may call it the election effect or whatever mumbo-jumbo.
There are a lot of slides pending on all bourses and the current upswings are opportunities to book profits or escape with minimal losses.
VIX below 25 - this gives a lot of relief to bulls for the time being.
IMHO, eventual targets are 7500-7550 odd levels on BNF spot and 5600-5700 levels on CNXIT before starting the fresh leg up.
In terms of relief rally, the minimal target for Nifty has been achieved [please see Raghuji's post made yesterday] and is slowly moving towards the optimal target.
So where do we go from here
Critical Resistances: 4880-4911-4944-4994
Critical Supports: 4640-4690-4728-4751-4800
Today's close above 4840 and close to the day's high is very significant IMHO and we should not be surprised to see an attempt towards 4944-4994 [provided volumes increase by another 10% at least]
Now only a close below 4690 will usher the panic once again and this is still very much possible during this series [to fill in the pending downside gap]
Other Updates:
Dow: Still has potential to go to 12450-500 levels and only 2 consecutive closes below 11500 can confirm that the relief rallies are over on this one and we have to say adios to higher levels for a long time.
FTSE: 5650 odd levels were expected on Santa Rally but they came in the New Year's week. This one too may just make one valiant attempt towards 5700-5750 before heading down and eventual target is 4900 in the next few weeks. Confirmation that relief rally is over with 2 consecutive closes below 5550 and full weakness after a weekly close below 5350
DAX: Perhaps, a flick towards the 6350-6400 levels with a dovish ECB stance before heading downwards to sub-5k levels. Weakness to be confirmed with 2 consecutive closes below 5750
Euro Stoxx 50: Weakness to be confirmed only after a close below 2150
Euro-Dollar: These are relief rallies and the pair is on its set path to 1.25 where some respite might come with eventual targets of 1.1850 odd levels.
Precious Metals:
Gold and Silver may see USD 1700 and USD 33 odd levels respectively in the near future in a relief rally but these will be opportunities to book profits as eventual targets are USD 1350-USD 1450 for Gold and USD 22-USD 23 odd levels for silver on Comex; the correction in Rollar will further impact prices in Indian markets IMHO
One should remember that nothing has changed fundamentally over the last 1 month [or for that matter last 2 weeks!] Some may call it the January effect, some may call it the election effect or whatever mumbo-jumbo.
There are a lot of slides pending on all bourses and the current upswings are opportunities to book profits or escape with minimal losses.
3 comments:
dear nag bhai do we see 7500 on bnf this jan series or in feb. thanks
Dear Vishalji: Difficult to time the move for 7500 on BNF but seems unlikely for Jan series unless results and RBI disappoint [ref yesterday's post]; perhaps towards Feb expiry or mid-March would be more realistic IMHO for such lower levels on BNF.
First signs of weakness will be a weekly close below 8200-8250 odd levels
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