Morning session saw OI in Nifty futures drop to 23.5 odd million and but as Europe session opened, another 1.5 million added. As mentioned earlier, to sustain yesterday's high [or for that matter today's high] and move up further at least 10% more volumes need to come in.
BNF's positive session IMHO, are clear indications of markets trying to discount a dovish RBI stance in advance and perhaps will end up making it a non-event if the dovish stance does come out [any disappointment in expectations from RBI can again set BNF to take steep cuts; not to forget that shorts in BNF and Axis Bank in particular have been royally trapped in the last 2 sessions!]
VIX still hovering around sub-25 giving some relief to bulls. CNXIT just not participating in these upsides but fortunately thethering on to 6275-6300 [the high of 6400 hardly lasted for any time] odd levels somehow [IMHO - this one can bring in a lot of disappointment in the next few weeks, particularly tomorrow with INFY's results and earnings guidance. Expecting PE rationalization in the near future to 15-16 levels from the current factor of 20 across the board for TCS, Wipro etc of which TCS has already got a major rationalization factor]
Critical levels remain unchanged and if volumes support, bulls may be lucky to see 4900+ levels within a couple of sessions. As far as news factor is concerned, on the domestic side, RBI policy and IT results will be a major factor in current series. On the international front, Euro woes will continue to dominate the scenario.
Expecting the 2 pending downside gaps to be filled within the next 3 weeks or so. Tomorrow may gain be a day of opportunities followed by 17th Jan as a high weightage day for Jan series.
On Friday, the day of Makar Sankranti, the action on bourses may not be very sweet but this date carries lower weightage - caution is advised and perhaps may be better to enjoy the festivity than risk trading margin.
BNF's positive session IMHO, are clear indications of markets trying to discount a dovish RBI stance in advance and perhaps will end up making it a non-event if the dovish stance does come out [any disappointment in expectations from RBI can again set BNF to take steep cuts; not to forget that shorts in BNF and Axis Bank in particular have been royally trapped in the last 2 sessions!]
VIX still hovering around sub-25 giving some relief to bulls. CNXIT just not participating in these upsides but fortunately thethering on to 6275-6300 [the high of 6400 hardly lasted for any time] odd levels somehow [IMHO - this one can bring in a lot of disappointment in the next few weeks, particularly tomorrow with INFY's results and earnings guidance. Expecting PE rationalization in the near future to 15-16 levels from the current factor of 20 across the board for TCS, Wipro etc of which TCS has already got a major rationalization factor]
Critical levels remain unchanged and if volumes support, bulls may be lucky to see 4900+ levels within a couple of sessions. As far as news factor is concerned, on the domestic side, RBI policy and IT results will be a major factor in current series. On the international front, Euro woes will continue to dominate the scenario.
Expecting the 2 pending downside gaps to be filled within the next 3 weeks or so. Tomorrow may gain be a day of opportunities followed by 17th Jan as a high weightage day for Jan series.
On Friday, the day of Makar Sankranti, the action on bourses may not be very sweet but this date carries lower weightage - caution is advised and perhaps may be better to enjoy the festivity than risk trading margin.
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