Tuesday, November 22, 2011

EOD Analysis for 22nd November 2011 and Outlook for 23rd November 2011

A day with lots of volatility on either side; a relief rally was due courtesy short-covering; OI in Nifty futures surged to 41 million [expiry roll-over effect??] and VIX was ok at around 27-28 [Manipulation as this kind of volatility warrants 29+ VIX IMHO - our NSE only feels falling prices = volatility!]

Nevertheless, all bourses were due for short-covering after the brutal carnage yesterday. Euro-Dollar is a shade above 1.354 as I put this and it has potential to pull-back to 1.36 levels [or a shade higher] eventual target is 1.34-1.32-1.28 in gradual phases over the next 5 to 8 weeks. Back to Nifty, INFY again went all the way down to 2600 and closed above 2700 levels - whether it will manage to sustain such levels is a big question especially with so much negativity around. Tata Motors made a smart recovery considering the levels to which it was badgered until yesterday but the rise is an illusion.

Critical levels remain unchanged; direction is down, momentum is down but weak hands will be chopped on the short side as well as long side. November 2011 in all likelihood is set to go down as Mowember! Only money printing can save the bourses and yesterdays collapse in metals is a clear cut indication of margin calls being triggered. Eventual downside target for Nifty is 4450-4550 from where the next longer term leg up can commence.

There is no perpetual rise or fall; in the short-term, all markets will tend to mirror each other; for the next 3 to 4 months; hedges are critical as there will be many gyrations on either side before going in the direction of the larger trend [which id DOWN]

For those of you who are asking stock-specific advice, please take a little time off to go through the weekend posts of mine made over the last 6 weeks; all counters, indices, entry points and targets have been given there.

For all those who want to get in touch with seniors like wwji, raghuji, harshalji etc, yes, we do have a controlled group on FB and we don't believe in more the merrier. The forum is moderated by our dear Sunny bhai and entry is by invitation only. Please send a PM to diehard39 on mmb or send a freind request to Sunny Hooda on FB [DOB 3rd August with a tiger as his profile picture]

Condition is Very Clear: You have to provide contact details that can be verified - and if he is satisfied with the same, he will provide access to our group there. His decision is final and binding.

5 comments:

kalyani said...

nagraj sir,

i joined your group in facebook but what is the id of wwji in it ?

reachnagraj / theknight16 said...

search for wave rider

kalyani said...

thank you sir

Suraj said...

Dear Nagraj Sir,

PM sent to sunny Bhai. But i could not locate his FB ID sunny hooda.

Regards
Suraj

vishal said...

i have send the request to sunny . let him verify and add me . my number is mentioned on it