Monday, November 21, 2011

EOD Analysis for 21st November 2011 and Outlook for 22nd November 2011

A very weak opening aided by negative global cues and a bit of short-covering in the middle session. OI in Nifty futures surged today to almost 36 million [not surprising as we head closer to expiry] Euro-Dollar is below 1.35 levels for now but the upside seems capped and it is under extreme pressure to retest 1.34-1.3425 levels that will make banks weaker; if some recovery happens there [which IMHO will see some recovery] FTSE has hit our T1 of 5300 and is edging lower whilst DAX is around 5660 [I must confess here that these were levels expected on Friday and when that did not happen, was looking for a round of short-covering today on these counters before hitting the target; next targets are 4800-4900 on FTSE and sub-5k levels on DAX with intermediate relief rallies [unless some form of QE comes in from central banks. It is interesting to note that whilst ECB is saying that it won't act as lender of last resort, it has been buying Italian notes to bring some calm on the surface!]

Back to Nifty, breach of 4880 almost has filled the pending gap and the most critical support points are 4693-4720-4728-4751

Auto counters like MnM saw some short-covering before crumbling but Tata Motors continued its losing streak. 2 consecutive closes below INFY would have made it vulnerable for retest of 2650 had been mentioned on Friday [1 close can be a false alarm at times] However, the counter has made a day low of 2626 today and has snapped back. If it manages to close above 2650 once again, good, else more bloodbath expected on this counter. Broader markets are not showing any signs of recovery.

Today was the 8th consecutive day of loss and tomorrow is critical. If the session turns negative for tomorrow as well w/o too much short-covering, we may have another 5 sessions of weakness. Expiry is on Thursday and one can never tame expiry due to multiple manipulations. FMCG and some Pharma counters are the lone crusaders on Nifty as I put this note.

Still no trace of any bullish tsunami but as we always keep saying - there is no perpetual fall or rise; in fact, on an index level, markets have not moved anywhere but broader markets are seeing levels not seen across 2011. One by one, all operator stocks like Jubilant Food, KS Oils, VIP Industries, Polaris etc are witnessing the inevitable - we have been alerting readers constantly of avoiding such stocks as they simply bungee jump for the plunges. Some counters are looking attractive to buy on Delivery Basis and the list was given last month itself. 4693 is the last hope for bulls on the downside failing which one should not be surprised to see 4450-4550 levels on Nifty [before or after expiry remains anybody's guess]

Once bulls conquer 4880 with volume and momentum, they still have steam in them to retest 4944-4994 on upside. 2 consecutive closes above 5092-5125 levels and bulls are back in action. IMHO, we are almost at the last stage of bottoming out as far as Nifty is concerned.

Special Thanks to garikaptiji [mmb id] for his astrological advice given to all followers on our private FB group. Some forecasts took a little time to manifest but when they did, the forces were even stronger

He categorically mentioned that initial transit of Mars into Leo, Saturn into Libra and reversal of retrogade Jupiter can bring a lot of political and capital market turmoil; as late as last night, he alerted all of us about Sun's transit to Scorpio today that would take a lot of toll and we can see the result on the screen. Hats off to his readings and he also constantly has been saying "This is what I see as per the astrological charts - please combine these with other techniques all of you use for your individual analysis and work out the key support/resistance levels" I am specifically mentioning this because it takes a lot of courage to speak what one feels is correct despite all the mud slinging and name calling that took place. He had categorically said that MA (Manipulative Analysis) can bring some respite on the bourses only to reverse all the gains and the falls will be very fast and furious. My salute to garikaji for his guts and courage to stick to his guns and for such an accurate forecast made well in advance!

My blog post for today is a tribute to garikaji [sarmaji as we call him lovingly]

2 comments:

Srinivasan Sankararaman said...
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sunilhooda said...

To join our fb group you need to give your email id which is associated with ur FB Id.

U can post here ur email ID or u can post on Sunny'corner. both are welcomed. another option u can always PM me on MMB. on diehard39