Thursday, September 29, 2011

EOD Analysis for 29th September 2011 and Outlook for 30th September 2011

First and foremost, I would like to apologize to all followers of this blog for failing to make an update last night. I put up a post in MMB at 1:31 am IST but could not add that as a comment here. This is the post I had made. Most of the fellow boarders read the message in conjunction with the posts from other seniors of the family.


Hmm - a busy week for me and am certainly going to miss expiry action tomorrow.

22.01 CET/ 1.31am IST
This is my outlook based on review of charts, counts et al

Tomorrow, we are very likely to retest the 4865-4875 levels raising hopes of bears big time.This would ideally take place before Europe opens. Once Europe opens, expecting a sudden turnaround on all bourses. Above 4960 (harshal bhai`s hawala level, and now I know why ;))

4960-4868 is a no fly zone. A 15 min candle with High below 4868 and bang bang bhaloo power all the way until Friday. A 15 min candle with Low above 4960 it is saand power despite expiry day. Either side a century can be expected further. Enjoy the expiry and Im sure I will be missed on the forum tomorrow.

Rulez are simple - work pays for my bread n butter and helps me live my current lifestyle - that is Top Priority - always.


So where do we go from here now? 5032 has provided the resistance as expected and shorts were royally trapped and so were Puts. Markets are not out of the woods and we should see some profit booking tomorrow and wouldn't be surprised to see the volumes suddenly drop over. Only a close above 5032 can usher further upside and there are negative divergences seen in stocks like LnT and other interest rate sensitives as well. Now we are still in Sell on Rise mode but the 4880-4911 zone may provide some support in the interim period. We have a gap up from Tuesday and that should be filled to the downside by 8 to 13 trading sessions max from now. On the upside, 2 consecutive closes above 5032 will give another 144 points to the upside and retest the 5177-5196-5225 levels [seems very difficult to go beyond this]

On the downside, 1 close below 5032 will open Nifty for retest of 4880-4911 levels. 2 consecutive closes below 5032 and we open for retest of 4800 levels yet again. If LnT joins this short covering rally then some more upside may come but at least for tomorrow, profit booking seems very much on the cards.

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