Friday, February 1, 2013

Outlook For February 2013

So far so good - the upside bonus continued till 6080

Where are we headed next???

Let us view the Nifty and BankNifty Charts on Daily / Weekly Basis first

There are a lot of bull cries running around; we should not forget that the 2 instances when January has witnessed 6k+ levels, the year has been sour [Jan '08 saw 6357 and then went all the way to 2252; Jan '11 saw 6181 and then went all the way to 4531]

Will things change this time??? First of all, we have to acknowledge the fact that this rally so far has been liquidity fuelled and optimism-based; A secular bull market is when majority of the stocks boom with mid-caps and small-caps outperforming peers by huge margins and perpetual positive market breadth. That has not been the case so far; most of the upside has been in front-line stocks whilst sectoral churns have been witnessed in large/mid and small caps. Capital Goods are up once, then its FMCG and Pharma, then cement so on and so forth. The midcap index almost gave up all its Dec '12 gains in 3 trading sessions flat!!!

The number of firms approaching banks for Corporate Debt Restructuring has been phenomenal [this is going to be the major headline across business channels IMHO in 2nd half of 2013] The Rollar is still above the crucial 48.25 and psychological 50 mark; so is it the right time to go short??? No, one has to wait for appropriate signals to come in. As seen in the charts above, prices are still in the upward trajectory channel. Unless that channel is broken on downside on weekly charts, it is not appropriate to short the market.

Critical Dates for February '13
13th Feb '13
17th Feb '13
25th Feb '13

Enjoy the upside till it lasts; 

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