Wednesday, April 4, 2012

EOD Analysis For 4th April 2012 and Outlook For 9th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around 20-21 million and VIX hovering around 21 levels

Critical Levels and Outlook remain unchanged for Nifty as well as BankNifty [expecting BNF to bounce back strongly from 10150-10200 levels on spot values]

Action may continue to be range bound for a few more sessions before a breakdown or breakout IMHO

Nifty seems to be strong and is unlikely to go below 5177 for NEXT WEEK on closing basis unless some major bad news comes through; on the other hand it is struggling to take out 5408 for even 1 session [2 consecutive sessions are required to confirm upside further]

Avoid building OTM option straddles as the odds are heavily stacked in favor of option writers IMHO;
Such pauses and consolidation phases are very healthy for the market;

[IMHO time and price balancing warrants an eventual rate of change @ 10 points per trading day on EOD basis as far as Nifty is concerned. As most experts point out, the bull trend for medium term has been established with 34, 50, 100 EMAs crossing over 200 DMA. Now it is the time to use the corrections and buy on delivery basis. Not sure of going to new highs this year but 5740 on Nifty spot is a logical target on upside and anything above that will be a bonus :D Banking and Infra pack will outperform IMHO for 2012]

Enjoy the loooong weekend;

Next update: Monday EOD......[next week I will be pretty much busy with personal/professional commitments and hence the updates may be sporadic; stay tuned to Raghuji and SMO's blogs for trading levels]

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