Tuesday, January 3, 2012

EOD Analysis for 3rd January 2012 and Outlook for 4th January 2012

A very positive open in price at the back of positive global cues and pretty good price action from all major counters. Still not very convinving because of the lack of volumes [OI not exceeding 22.5-23 million despite such a positive session] and would prefer to classify today's gap as an exhaustion gap which IMHO will be filled prior to Jan expiry or worst case scenario in the middle of Feb series. VIX cooled down a bit.

The first congestion area of 4690-4720 was crossed over well but the second congestion area 4728-4751 proved a bit difficult to conquer but as of now marginally up. Need more volumes to sustain this

Critical Supports: 4590-4640-4690-4720

Critical Resistances: 4751-4780-4808-4840

A close above 4840 with volume and momentum can yield another 144 points up in the same direction
Full weakness and panic on the bourses can be expected once prices breach 4509 on the downside, more so if it happens on a weekly closing basis.

As per forecast given prior to Christmas, Santa Rally was expected with the following targets for major indices

DAX: 6100-6200
FTSE: 5550-5600
DOW: 12200-12400

Alas, Santa didn't give it but the new year seems to have managed to pull for most of the targets given above
So if the volumes to enter the system for Nifty, maybe just maybe we also will have some more upside before sliding down [4840 holds the key as Raghuji also mentioned in his blog yesterday]

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