Friday, January 20, 2012

EOD Analysis For 20th January 2012 and Outlook For 23rd January 2012

Extremely positive start for Nifty once again aided by positive global cues. 4 sessions away from expiry and this time, volumes have come in on expected lines [last month, high volumes showed up only a day prior to expiry]. OI in Nifty futures hovering around 33-34 million [indicating a lot of roll-overs by Longs and Shorts] Star performer of the day was our barometer Banknifty with Axis Bank continuing its winning streak big time. In fact, had it not been for Banknifty, Friday factor may have had its full force today! VIX did spike up a bit today but nothing to be worried about yet as it is below 23

Where do we go from here with 3 sessions pending in the series???

Critical levels remain unchanged and the 5032-5092 band will be a strong resistance zone unless there is a gap-up. Volumes as long as they stay at today's levels and shorts get chopped, we should not be surprised to see 5092 being taken out and in case that happens, Nifty opens for 5125-5169-5177 [probability of closing above these levels seems very low to me; ]

On the downside, 4800-4840 band may be able to withstand a round of selling pressure and even in case of excessive selling, 4690-4728 will provide a strong bounce-back IMHO. Now only a close below 4690 can usher in panic.

Gaps are pending to be filled and I estimate these to be filled by 22nd Feb '12.

Global Market Updates:

Dow: IMHO, the last leg of the upside is done and this counter is set to start its next leg of fall. However, initial signs of weakness only after a weekly close below 11800 and complete weakness to be confirmed after 2 consecutive closes below 11500

Let the spike in automotive segment not throw wool onto the eyes; it is the output falls in Thailand due to floods and lower production levels in Japan that is keeping factories at full capacity in US. It will come down with a thud within a year.

The fact that jobs are being cut left right and centre in the BFSI segment is enough proof of a weak economy. The same holds true for Europe as well.

FTSE: Again, the relief rally seems to be topping out [we had given targets of 5700-5750] but weakness to be confirmed only after 2 consecutive closes below 5550. Initial target remains 4900 and this will happen swiftly after a weekly close below 5300-5350 levels

DAX: Same as above; initial signs of weakness though only after 2 consecutive closes below 5750. Eventual target remains sub 5k levels

Euro-Dollar: These are relief rallies that can extend upto 1.3250 also; T1 remains 1.25 odd levels and eventual target is 1.1850 as a minimum IMHO

Euro Stoxx 50: This one definitely has surprised a lot of bears by taking out 2400 levels! Weakness only with a close below 2125 and then the falls will accelerate.

Gold: Target remains intact at T1 = USD 1450 and T2 = 1350 on Comex; however, any form of QE may invite a sharp spike in the price once but these should be used as opportunities to book profits IMHO

Silver: Target remains intact at sub-25 levels but any form of QE can invite a spike upto USD 34-USD 36 levels. Same outlook as with Gold.

Next update on Monday EOD. Enjoy your weekend.

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