Friday, December 23, 2011

EOD Analysis for 23rd December 2011 and Outlook for 26th December 2011

Yet again stumped to see very low volumes; OI was just hovering around 25 mill in the morning session and VIX was hovering around 26.5-27 [volumes just added another 1 million odd towards the end]; BNF was pretty much flat in the morning and thus a relatively calm session in the morning. Yet again BNF has proved how important it is in leading the index overall. HUL continued its defensive streak in the morning whilst IT and Auto majors pretty much were again on the surface.

4 to go for expiry and hot money is keeping people guessing; critical levels remain unchanged; 4509 survived on weekly basis thereby keeping hopes open for some more upside as we move into Christmas and New Year. Critical levels remain unchanged.

Sustaining below 4640 for more than 90 minutes can trigger steep corrections to the downside
Sustaining above 4728 for more than 90 minutes can take Nifty all the way to 4800-4840 [This condition was satisfied to day in terms of price action but volumes were missing; unless the volumes come up, it is difficult to take it up and even more difficult to sustain] We opened the series with about 33 million OI in Nifty futures and these will come up for sure before expiry [May sound silly right now because its the 3rd day Im saying this but the ticker is not reflecting - all I can say is I am confident of the volumes coming in prior to expiry]

Lack of volumes can delay but not prevent the falls whilst the same certainly cannot sustain upsides. Next week being expiry week, can expect lots of price fluctuations again on either side. Not much change in Option Writers spot [in fact now tethering across 46/47/4800 for Calls as well as Puts owith no significant change in OI. Monday and Tuesday systematically can expect premiums to be eroded on either side before taking a definite direction]

Hope you had a good trading week overall; over the weekend I will be putting forth my views on

2 Aspects

1] My Views on Fundamental Analysis on Nifty50 stocks/sectors and why IMHO some valuations are still ridiculous [I still believe there is a lot of pain remaining in the system]

2] The Euro-Contagion Perspective and Catch-22 Situation for Germany

[Of course the articles would be verbose as usual as brevity in expression is not my forte]

1 comment:

lalitlk said...

Wishing Team Nifty Paradox and all others
a happy X-mass & New Year.