Wednesday, December 14, 2011

EOD Analysis for 14th December 2011 and Outlook for 15th December 2011

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 24-25 million mark that is not able to sustain the upside momentum but not accelerate the falls either. Euro-Dollar has confirmed the technical signal for the next major destination to be 1.1850 in a phased manner of course [should be about 8 weeks]. Dollar Index in fact now has a minimum target of 81 and can notch a bit higher when the dollar denominated obligations turn up for dues. BNF will almost certainly retest 8280 levels and we should not be surprised for a retest of 7800 levels in the next 90 odd trading sessions.

FTSE is on its way to retest the 4900 levels but that may take a little more time; probably after the Santa Rally. Like-wise for the DAX, EuroStoxx as well. To the extent 11800 holds out on a weekly close basis for now, a Santa Rally to 12200-12400 levels is very much on the cards for Dow. It will be the last to fall in all likelihood. 2 consecutive closes below 11500 now and it is adios to higher levels for a pretty long time. [All indices on weekly charts are displaying a classic HnS pattern and the necklines will be plunged royally in a few more weeks]

Critical Levels remain unchanged; 4720-4728-4751 remain critical supports and 4840-4880-4911 remain critical resistances. Short-covering can take Nifty upto 4994 but beyond that we need fresh longs and buying.

Huge OI addition in 4700 Puts and 4800 Calls that may keep the index in a narrow range for a couple of days; a close below 4720 will invite retest of recent lows and we may see a new low before the Santa Rally. It is very critical for bulls to stage 2 consecutive closes above 4880 asap to be able to take Nifty to some respectable levels.


sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Nagraj which site are you referring for Nifty futures OI. Since the NSE site is not showing 24/25 million.

Even yesterday it showed only 19 mill while you referred to it as 24/25 million

Could u please illuminate

reachnagraj / theknight16 said...

I use my broker's software for the OI and I always take current month plus next month futures into account for the initial part of the series and current month plus next 2 months towards expiry.

Anonymous said...

Q:4880 asap to be able to take Nifty to some respectable levels.

U.Q: Dear Nagi ji !

what do you mean by some respectable levels? Maiya Parmeshwari is always respectable at all levels !