Wednesday, December 14, 2011

EOD Analysis for 14th December 2011 and Outlook for 15th December 2011

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 24-25 million mark that is not able to sustain the upside momentum but not accelerate the falls either. Euro-Dollar has confirmed the technical signal for the next major destination to be 1.1850 in a phased manner of course [should be about 8 weeks]. Dollar Index in fact now has a minimum target of 81 and can notch a bit higher when the dollar denominated obligations turn up for dues. BNF will almost certainly retest 8280 levels and we should not be surprised for a retest of 7800 levels in the next 90 odd trading sessions.

FTSE is on its way to retest the 4900 levels but that may take a little more time; probably after the Santa Rally. Like-wise for the DAX, EuroStoxx as well. To the extent 11800 holds out on a weekly close basis for now, a Santa Rally to 12200-12400 levels is very much on the cards for Dow. It will be the last to fall in all likelihood. 2 consecutive closes below 11500 now and it is adios to higher levels for a pretty long time. [All indices on weekly charts are displaying a classic HnS pattern and the necklines will be plunged royally in a few more weeks]

Critical Levels remain unchanged; 4720-4728-4751 remain critical supports and 4840-4880-4911 remain critical resistances. Short-covering can take Nifty upto 4994 but beyond that we need fresh longs and buying.

Huge OI addition in 4700 Puts and 4800 Calls that may keep the index in a narrow range for a couple of days; a close below 4720 will invite retest of recent lows and we may see a new low before the Santa Rally. It is very critical for bulls to stage 2 consecutive closes above 4880 asap to be able to take Nifty to some respectable levels.



3 comments:

sometimesbullsometimesbear said...

Nagraj which site are you referring for Nifty futures OI. Since the NSE site is not showing 24/25 million.

Even yesterday it showed only 19 mill while you referred to it as 24/25 million

Could u please illuminate

reachnagraj / theknight16 said...

I use my broker's software for the OI and I always take current month plus next month futures into account for the initial part of the series and current month plus next 2 months towards expiry.

lalu prasad yadav said...

Q:4880 asap to be able to take Nifty to some respectable levels.

U.Q: Dear Nagi ji !

what do you mean by some respectable levels? Maiya Parmeshwari is always respectable at all levels !
Nahi?