Wednesday, November 30, 2011

EOD Analysis for 30th November 2011 and Outlook for 1st December 2011

Volaility filled day with a lot of opportunities for alert day traders and at the same time, a potential cruel day for safe traders with so many whipsaws intra-day. Such action is not uncommon after the meteoric rise on Monday and from an EW point of view, my views are slightly divergent from that of seniors [again, would like to remind all of you that such differences of opinion are not uncommon and it does not impact our relationship in any way. Apologies for any confusion caused to readers with this divergent outlook and can only say that when in doubt, stay out of the market or play with Edge of Hedge; of course it is prudent to do one's own homework]

Back to my interpretation of waves; from the lows of 4640, I am looking at the wave structure as a 5-3-5 zig-zag A [some fractals covered in the gap-up], Flat B done today and a zig-zag C unfurling now that will try to take out 4911-4944-4994 before resuming the next furious leg down. [Expecting this furious downleg to play out in the period 5th December to 16th December with some relief rallies in between]

INFY still latching on to the 2600 mark [though 2650 would have been better] after showing a low of 2561 today. Tata Motors saw a correction to 169.5 and then some pull-back. Banks also had a very topsy turvy day though BNF closed marginally negative today.

Critical levels remain unchanged; condition for bulls is to manage 2 consecutive closes above 5092-5125 levels and for bears, 1 exhaustion gap [created on Monday's open] is signal enough and the same will be bolstered with a close below 4700; if 4640 does not hold this time and the volumes are significant with the fall, 4450-4550 is where we can expect things to bottom out.

Volumes are not very encouraging and VIX somehow is not reflecting the true status of the market. VIX shooting beyond 29-30 levels will be a disaster on the bourses.

For tomorrow, sustaining above 4840 for 60-90 minutes will open up Nifty for retesting 4911 on the upside; sustaining below 4780 for 60-90 minutes invites a retest of 4720-4740 levels. Larger trend is still down as reflected in the broader markets.


animoitra2011 said...

Fine analysis Nagi bhai.So from 5 to 16 corrective .And will gather momentum from 3rd week of Dec.Regds.

SonuS said...

Thanks Nagiji for your analysis and great work in sharing updates.
Could you also share the opinion of other seniors, especially WWji on EW counts of Nifty.

Also your updates on VIX, OI and volumes for Nify and Bank Nifty are very useful. Kindly request you to create a separate section on the blog for statistical updates.