Tuesday, October 4, 2011

EOD Analysis for 4th October and Outlook for 5th October 2011

What a day? Absolute chaos and mayhem on the bourses. A slight gap-down on open, a confirmation to go down with a 15 minute candle with high of the bar below 4840 and then an apparent pullback only to fall in 1 straightline all the way from 4870 levels to sub 4750 levels and all subsequent relief not really suggesting anything meaningful - a tussle to tide over 4765 and then a tussle to tide over 4773 - a very critical level for Nifty.

Harshal bhai and I had pointed yesterday to the possibility of retesting 4773-4790 levels if we get a bar with high below 4840 and whilst that happened - the subsequent blood bath was certainly beyond what I anticipated for the day. Banknifty had melted almost 340 points at one point of the day [that makes it a 400 point fall from the high of the day!] and is well below critical support of 9k levels. The Greece drama is just a farce IMHO - what hot money is really trying to do is create panic and coerce central banks for another round of QE3. Chances are that it may come through but for now upside is capped at 4840 and even if we take today's extreme price action as a throw under, a throwover can give an upside towards 4944.

Bulls are almost for a complete ICU rest now and may manage to play some catch up if we get a close above 5032 levels. The upside for the next 2 trading sessions (Thursday being off) will only be a result of short covering rather than fresh longs. Absolutely no signs of retail traders coming back for longs as after a spook in VIX to 39 levels and Nifty's day low at 4735 levels and some pullback, OI in Nifty futures were under 23 million! The only way some participation can now come in is with short-covering and a short-covering session can come through tomorrow.

The minimum target for the downside is about 4450 and may show another panic fall but such steep falls may just hold back for a few more trading sessions. Hope readers managed to follow the advice given consistently in the blog for a winning propostion - wait for a meaningful rise and Sell on Rise - at appropriate levels.

The critical levels remain unchanged; a close below 4720 will accelerate the downside and also deepen the targets to the downside. Looking for a retest of 3800-4400 levels around 18th November '11 [critical week 16th Nov to 22nd Nov]

1 comment:

reachnagraj / theknight16 said...

Just one clarification - the conditions of the 15 min candle was given on the mmb board for the benefit of the larger number of people who follow posts there as well