Thursday, October 13, 2011

EOD Analysis for 13th October and Outlook for 14th October 2011

Nifty opened on a positive note today but the OI in Nifty futures was not convincing with just a shade below 23 million and in due course of time it started falling. Just as expected, within 25 points of the fall, another 2 million OI came into Nifty futures in a jiffy. Banknifty did cross over 9650 levels at one point of time but started cracking a bit but it is still over the crucial 9500 mark. At least BNF October futures saw a lot of shorts enter the system as the BNF October futures saw discount to spot price towards the end. Markets are not out of the woods and whilst 5092 did not hold today, it is the second consecutive close above the crucial level of 5032 IMHO. If 5032 survives at close tomorrow, there is still a chance to retest the 5125-5150-5177-5196 levels. A close over 5150 will generate around 144 points further to the upside filling up that last pending gap around 5328 mark.

On the downside, a close below 9500 on Banknifty and a close below 4980 will again bring in a lot of weakness on the bourses and all the efforts of bulls may go in vain again. On stock specific counters, Infosys did manage to post some gains today though it did not manage to stage a close over 2700 [a lot of short put covering was seen on this counter in the morning session where even the November 2700 Put made a high of 150 and immediately made a low of 105 within 10 minutes. 2 consecutive closes above 2700 can bring some more upside on Infy whilst a second close below 2700 levels will bring in a lot of profit booking on this counter and this stance may get vindicated with the way Euro is experiencing profit booking today]

Unless 4880 is breached on the downside, one can expect some smart rebounds by Nifty and most critical support levels are at 4663-4720-4728 levels. There is a gap at 4750-4880 odd levels that will eventually fill up within 22nd November 2011

Most vulnerable period on Nifty is expected to be around the 16th Nov to 22nd Nov period where one can start looking for value buying opportunities with a 2 to 3 year time horizon of generating good returns.


verash said...

Hello Nagraj, MMB has become a nuisance. Could you please do all us favour and create a blog where we can all convene together with our respected gurus

Suraj said...

Dear Sir,
I have a query regarding precious metals. Hope you respond to it.

I am holding physical gold and silver bought @ rs 22000 and rs60000 a few months back.

I am listening voices of silver going down in the range of 40k and gold to 22k. What should I do? Sell these step by step or in one go or I should hold it.

I may tell you that I am not leveraged but can not afford to lose in medium to long run. Also equity market is becoming attractive and I have no fresh capital to invest.
One thing I have noticed that precious metals and Global markets are behaving directly propotional.I am fearing that when equity is at bottom, these metals will fare no better, hence at that time it would not be possible to sell gold and silver and buy equity.

Please guide as I am not able to decide what to do.
Thanks in anticipation