Friday, September 23, 2011

EOD Analysis for 23rd September 2011 and Outlook for 26th September 2011

Nifty opened on a very soft note courtesy weak global cues and the day was extremely volatile and choppy as indicated yesterday. Nifty Futures OI clocked more than 30 million in both the rise and fall today whilst VIX spooked up beyond 35 levels. Of course those who were alert and followed the charts posted on the weavologic section and levels indicated could have reaped fantastic rewards. So moving forward, a technical pullback towards 4925-4950 levels once again is on the cards. The maximum upside is almost certainly capped at 5225 levels now and it just remains to be seen how much of a pullback can Nifty stage.

The critical levels on upside are - 4911 - 4940-4980-5032. Only a close above 5032 with volume and momentum can provide further upside and as of now, one should not expect more than this. The only silver lining is that there is some similarity in the current price action with what we saw in April/May/June series. If that similarity indeed replicates itself, then the pull-back may be strong. The larger trend is DOWN

On the downside, the critical levels are 4820 - 4780 - 4720 - 4693

The market has moved to a completely Sell on Rise scenario. We are headed to 4450-4500 levels in about 8 weeks time IMHO. One should not rush to buy Puts though as the VIX will cool down slightly next week and will be available at lower premiums. Longs should act as hedges for the Shorts only and the risk reward ratio is in favor of Bears completely.

Other updates will be made by Raghuji on the counts aspect and Harshalji/Pyare RCGji on Weavologic. Global Market Updates will be provided over the weekend. Hope all of you made good profits with the forecasts given here. We certainly did and I must confess that the downside will start was anticipated by the team; but so much so soon was not expected by me either. I had always insisted that the threat of retesting 4900 and then 4800 levels was very much on the cards. [My personal outlook was that 4911-4944 levels would hold the fort for this week and further downside would come towards expiry. It was this outlook that prompted me to go long yesterday towards 4900 but I got stopped out whilst the hedges via Oct shorts were intact. Finally managed to reap rewards on both sides today courtesy guidance from Raghuji and Harshalji]

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Have a nice weekend and stay tuned to the various aspects of the markets that we keep sharing from time to time. From today, our dear Sunnyji will be providing us with a lot of humor with his jokes and quotable quotes. From time to time, he will also share his ideas on Fundamental Analysis of counters / sectors.

Tomorrow, we have a discourse by lovely QOji. I hope to meet some of you online. 

2 comments:

vineeta said...

thanks a lot for your bang on analysis

nalin said...

Nagraj ji...if you can assist in clearing dis dillema
1. roller @ a new high what do u think where will it go?
2. I was thinking(from sentimentl point )...since dollar is nt d safest assest....@least after the downgrade...why is it rallying?? and contrary why is precious commodities are moving
down.
3. Under such precarious situation i feel...default of greece is imminent...as october is the last month till they have cash 2 run Gov. & still no sight of next tranch of bailout..
what r d possible consiquences we may face if it defaults??? and who v shud b prepard 4 it???

with luv & regards
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