Friday, September 16, 2011

EOD Analysis for 16th September 2011 and Outlook for 19th September 2011

Nifty opened on a good note today following positive global cues and Banknifty extending its gains above 9700. The OI in Nifty futures was relatively lower at open at around 27 million. However, once the profit booking came in, the OI in Nifty futures continued to surge and shot up to 29.5 million in both the fall and subsequent rise. The 25 bps hike was anyways discounted by the markets and the overall impact of RBI news was as good as a non-event. VIX incidentally went below 30 levels but markets are not out of the woods yet.

The close was below 5092 but Nifty may still make an attempt to take out 5150-5177-5196 before heading south. Weakness will be confirmed with Banknifty closing below 9500 and until then Shorts should be initiated with a rise and not just straight up. Critical levels remain unchanged for both upside and downside. The movements are indicating that we may test 4800 levels before the end of this series but those going short on the market through Puts should be very very careful. Options premium are decreasing significantly and despite the right strike and subsequent price action, the Puts may not yield the desired profits.

As of now, upside is capped at 5225 and only a close above 5177 can give more strength. Until then take hedged positions, ideally via futures. If Dow continues the happy Friday and sad Monday streak, then we may see some downside on Nifty on Tuesday. Global market updates will be uploaded over the weekend. Hope you enjoyed the profits on both upside and downside. Thanks for visiting the blog and providing valuable feedback for improvements.

Happy to announce that we have a new blog section now being authored by Harshalji. It will provide a bi-weekly update on Nifty, classical TA and strategies for trading on Nifty. The link to the same is provided on the homepage of this blog (Weavologic For Nifty). Enjoy your weekend and hope to meet some of you on Skype tomorrow for the session by QOji.


kabir said...

hi nagraj sirji,
its good to hear that after our respected RAGHU ji, harshal ji will also be writing for the blog, which will be of immense help with regard to taking a position,

thanx a lot sirji for the kind effort


reachnagraj / theknight16 said...

Hi Dan
I am grateful to harshalji for agreeing to take up this section. I would also like to add that seniors are agreeing to share their knowledge on their blog sections not so that we can take that as a proxy to take a position....

It is rather to guide us to do better analysis by ourselves. Good Luck

SMR said...

Hi Nags,

That's great News.

EW by Raghu ji and Classical TA by Harshal ji along with your worldly views wow..

Waiting for the day WW rides in.

P.S. Unable to find Harshal's blog link :-(

S Muthu Raman

reachnagraj / theknight16 said...

My dear SMRji
Sorry I should have mentioned it: it is the one called weavologic as our dear spiderman loves to put makdee ka jaal ;-)