Monday, August 29, 2011

Time/Price Alerts For September Series Nifty

Critical Dates For September series as follows

5th /6th / 7th September:
Justifications: 5th September marks the 1st Gann Circle of Sep series to be complete and coincides with 5 trading days from the low of 26th August. 6th September marks the 55th trading session from the low of 20th June 2011. 7th September marks the Gann Angle of 45 degrees for Sep series and 144 trading days from the 11th Feb 2011. [The cluster of dates coinciding with Fibo number of trading days from different lows is significant and one must look for a turning point around 7th Sep]

9th Sep: Marks the 90 Degree angle for Sep series;
11th Sep: Marks the 135 Degree angle for Sep series
13th Sep: Marks the 180 Degree angle for Sep series
15th Sep: Marks the 225 Degree angle for Sep series
17th Sep: Marks the 270 Degree angle for Sep series
19th Sep: Marks the 315 Degree angle for Sep series

22nd Sep: Marks the 0 Degree angle for Sep series [Rotation 3; Also marks the Fall Equinox in the Global Financial Calendar; so around 22nd, 23rd, one may see a trend change similar to that of March and June series.] The DJIA being launched on NSE is a boon for people who follow global markets. Around this time, one may see Dow make an attempt to go to the 12k mark and should use the opportunity to short DJIA futures with a 3 months forward contract {if and ONLY IF Dow spot is in the 11750-12k zone and you have a fair clue of global indices}

25th Sep: Marks the 45 Degree Angle [Rotation 4]
26th Sep: Marks the completion of a 55 day Fibo cycle from the high of 5740 seen on 8th July 2011

28th Sep: Marks the 90 Degree Angle [Rotation 4]

Projected Path of Nifty For Sep Series [Indicative only and Positions Must be Taken with Hedges]
Broad Range is expected to be 4690 to 5150

Week1: 4720 - 4970 with 1 dip towards 4800-4850 in between. If markets are strong, then the downside will be restricted to around 4828 levels

Week2: Gradual falls and rises within a tight range of 4800-4900 [give or take a few points on either side]

Week3: Possible retest of 4690-4720 zone

Week4: Gradual retracement back again to 4900 levels and possibly, a couple of high sessions with gap-ups towards 5100 [Further updates will be provided once some more price action is available]

Consider this as the best path being projected by the GPS right now; diversions as and when they come will be intimated. One needs to be very nimble footed in such market conditions and ideally play both sides and then use trailing stop losses to cut losses and ride the profitable legs to the maximum possible extent.

4690-4720 was a good buy zone and the benefits of that have already been seen.
For the immediate term, 4950-5000 will be good levels to short Nifty and major counters that gained more than 5% to 8% [and could gain a little more]

Volumes are there in the market to the extent the VIX is above 24-25 levels; once that comes down further, one can see dwindling volumes. For getting more fine tuned movements keep an eye on Raghuji's EW count and do make it a point to see Shriram Oka's comments to the EW counts.

The mother of all resistances i.e. the downward trending line now cuts the price axis as 5400 levels and a channel drawn with a parallel line to that shows that we may not break the 4600 levels so soon.

Please use this LINK  for the Image

1 comment:

reachnagraj / theknight16 said...

With today's price action - need to make some amends to the roadmap

1 - For this week, we may not see below 4950 zone and try for 5108 levels next week.

Hedging positions are very critical and keep trailing stop losses on all positions taken; the losing leg should be squared off and the winning leg should be taken forward.