Tuesday, July 5, 2011

EOD Analysis for 5th July 2011 and Outlook for 6th July 2011

The weakness in markets is clearly evident with low volumes. However, we must also note that today is the 4th consecutive day that 5608 held out which was not expected on EOD levels; While we have a lot of intermediate support and resistance points, 5408, 5532, 5608, 5690 are very crucial levels for Nifty

Intermediate Support / Resistance points are 5440-5480; 5540-5580; 5640;

5608 should hold out tomorrow and the expected downside may come only in second half of Thursday session

5408 seems to have established itself as the bottom for now; I would again repeat, if we don't close below 5408 before 10th August 2011, then we can consider the revisit to 5177 to be over in June series when Nifty kissed the sub 5200 levels for sometime and a new high is poised to come in within 162 days from the day Nifty hit 5196

Moving forward, I expect a relatively flat session tomorrow with negative bias; Banknifty showed some strength in the last hour; expecting 1 visit to 11450-500 zone before collapsing below 11250 now

For Nifty, outlook is straightforward based on volumes
If markets are indeed strong, Nifty won't go below 5532 on EOD basis
If markets are indeed weak, Nifty won't go above 5690 on EOD basis

Risk Reward Ratio is in favour of 'Sell on Rise'; One note that readers should take into account that even on EOD, the session despite being flat saw an increase in Put prices rather than Call Prices....

International News that Can Impact Markets
Greece Crisis News
ECB Interest Rates
Non Farm Payrolls from US

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