EOD Analysis For 4th May 2012 and Outlook For 7th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 20-21 mill mark still and VIX has increased compared to yesterday but still not reflecting core price action.

Critical Levels remain unchanged for Nifty from previous posts [expecting a bounce back from the 5032-5092 band]

For BankNifty, the downside support has broken [please refer to the updated post yesterday with the BNF daily chart] Only respite was some premium was restored to the BNF May futures after trading the first 5 days @ discount; one round of short covering expected in the 9700-9750 region for about 150-200 points; safe traders should wait and buy above 9900 on May Futures price IMHO

EOD Analysis For 3rd May 2012 and Outlook For 4th May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 20 million mark and VIX seemingly under control [though in reality it is not!]


Nifty is still stuck in the same tight range of the Falling Wedge [ref updated image below and also note the volume scale below for April / May series]

On a time scale, it is indicating that in the period around 14th May to 16th May we should be able to see a decisive break-out or break-down in price


Critical Levels remain unchanged for Nifty
For BankNifty, will provide an update tomorrow as the dip below 10150 (a very crucial support level) is alarming and need to see how prices behave tomorrow as well.

Adding The Image For BankNifty
Tomorrow is very critical and so is holding on to 10050 on closing basis; rest is all given in the image itself

EOD Analysis For 2nd May 2012 and Outlook For 3rd May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 20-21 million mark and VIX is still below 20!

Critical levels and Outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty

Nifty Support Levels: 5032-5092-5136-5177-5225 [can stage a breakdown below 5032 opening 144 points to the downside]

Nifty Resistance Levels: 5280-5310-5348-5408 [can stage a breakout above 5348 and 2 consecutive closes above 5408 opens up a potential 144 point move to the upside]

As of now for May series, both breakout and breakdown scenarios are least probable IMHO and we should see consolidation within 5032-5310 range and this is still pretty good to trade via futures. It is an option writers paradise :D

[BNF Range therefore IMHO translates to 10150 and 10750 with same breakdown and breakout conditions]

EOD Analysis For 30th April 2012 and Outlook For 2nd May 2012

OI in Nifty futures still hovering around the 19 million mark making it difficult to sustain upsides [1.2 million added as we approached the Europe Open session]; VIX surprisingly cool [now well below 20!!]

Would again like to remind readers that OTM option straddles / strangles may not be very fruitful as long as Nifty is trading within a tight range of 200 points and that too, in a grinding fashion

Critical Levels and Outlook remain unchanged for both Nifty and BankNifty;

As far as trading is concerned, option writers still continue to rule the roost and for investors, corrections are good to buy into for deliveries; as of now, I still feel it is difficult to go below 5032 on closing basis on Nifty for May series but markets have their own ways...... ;-)

For tomorrow let us enjoy the May Day..................

EOD Analysis For 27th April 2012 and Outlook For 30th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures hovering around the 20-21 mill mark and VIX excessively cool yet

Critical levels for Nifty and BankNifty still remain unchanged and we should expect a range bound session for May i.e. Crucial Support for Nifty in the 5032-5092 band and Critical Resistance for Nifty in the 5348-5408 band [For BankNifty this should translate to about 10150-10750]

Strange to see BNF futures going @ discount wrt spot and need to observe this for a couple of sessions more [30-40 premium is the usual standard esp at the beginning of the series]

Just an image for illustration with data until yesterday EOD [this is the same chart I shared with our FB Group as well last night]

I am travelling for personal work over the weekend and hence Monday's post is doubtful from my end but expect to be regular from Tuesday.

EOD Analysis For 26th April 2012 and Outlook For 27th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures were about 26 million in the morning and inched upto 29 million towards Europe open. VIX is excessively cool and needs to rationalize a bit further.

Now that expiry woes are done, I will just highlight the fact that as far as May series is concerned, the crucial support band continues to be in the 5032-5092 band on closing basis for Nifty. From an investment perspective, such falls should be bought into on delivery basis and exposure directly to the index linked ETFs should be on the higher side IMHO

From a trading perspective, 5032-5092 will be an ideal bounce back band but upside still seems capped in the 5348-5408 region for May; on the downside, if 5032 is breached on closing basis, a further 144 odd points cut may be anticipated [though I personally feel that the odds of this happening are minimal - but just highlighting it so that one is aware]

The odds of Nifty hitting at least 5740 is very much realistic for 2012 if not more but the ascent may have to wait for the monsoon session to go through [21st June is Summer Solastice and IMHO, a nice upward move may commence around this time just like we had in 2009 as well as 2010]

OTM options must certainly be avoided even in May series just as the case was in April series as the odds are still stacked in favor of option writers with a potentially narrow range for Nifty for May 2012

EOD Analysis For 25th April 2012 and Outlook For 26th April 2012

OI in Nifty futures in the morning session dropped to 26 million [but came to 31 million just a few minutes before Europe opening] VIX is surprisingly cool as of now and IMHO its an aberration to take out options premiums

Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from previous posts for both Nifty and BankNifty
5032-5092 most critical support band for Nifty
10150  [give or take a few points here or there] most critical support for BankNifty
Please note that these values are of importance on EOD basis [intra-day levels may go lower as it happened with BNF today]

Now on Nifty, some positive divergence was seen on LnT but not confirmed by Tata Steel, RIL, BankNifty etc and with expiry tomorrow the odds are split wide open

From an investment perspective, all steep cuts are buying opportunities with a 2-3 year horizon; for trading, as Raghuji also keeps mentioning, it pays to be nimble footed and take each day as it comes. Adhere to stop losses when hit and keep trailing winning positions and lock in the gains :D

Let us review the high-probability trading opportunities I had given  3 sessions ago

For each one, it could go either ways breakout or a breakdown - direction was uncertain when posted

JP Associates

Before I put the next 2 illustrations i.e. IDFC and Larsen, let me make the point very clear that none of the blog contributors Raghuji, SMO or myself want to demonstrate any form of attitude. If there is anything, we have attitude of gratitude towards our mentors who walked us through a grilling process forever emphasizing Effort + Discipline = Success; We are only working on the 2 left hand variables and sometimes we win and sometimes we lose. When we find ourselves on the losing side, we get out quickly [this took some practice as markets tend to take some tuition fees and then it was upto us how we use the lessons :D]

IDFC

Correction to the Lot-Size of IDFC: Lot size is 2000 and not 1000 as put in the image

Larsen
This one stumped me on the time aspect though [was expecting this a week further] the potential break-out or break-down was evident when flagged

Moral of The Story: If you have trading capital for stock futures, the best way to deploy it is to patiently wait like a hunter and when the opportunity does crop up, go full throttle with a moderate stop loss and enjoy the gains; minimal brokerage, maximum ROI within a short time frame and no emotional atyaachaar for our tiny brains :D

As mentioned when I had first put this up, I seldom put stocks on my blog and stick to Nifty and BankNifty on the blog with broader support and resistance levels. Finer trading aspects are covered by Raghuji and SMO; I put up this post today just to follow through on my previous illustration

Credit for spotting these opportunities goes to EW and basic TA only that always keep emphasizing the importance of Triangles and Diagonals; as price bars near the end point of the Triangle / Diagonal [also called pennets or flags] be alert because some swift moves can be anticipated in either direction.

Enjoy the hunt for flags and pennets. They seldom come up on daily charts [normally once a quarter] but when they do, the odds of hitting those for sixes are extremely high - HHHHHH