OI in Nifty futures were about 26 million in the morning and inched upto 29 million towards Europe open. VIX is excessively cool and needs to rationalize a bit further.
Now that expiry woes are done, I will just highlight the fact that as far as May series is concerned, the crucial support band continues to be in the 5032-5092 band on closing basis for Nifty. From an investment perspective, such falls should be bought into on delivery basis and exposure directly to the index linked ETFs should be on the higher side IMHO
From a trading perspective, 5032-5092 will be an ideal bounce back band but upside still seems capped in the 5348-5408 region for May; on the downside, if 5032 is breached on closing basis, a further 144 odd points cut may be anticipated [though I personally feel that the odds of this happening are minimal - but just highlighting it so that one is aware]
The odds of Nifty hitting at least 5740 is very much realistic for 2012 if not more but the ascent may have to wait for the monsoon session to go through [21st June is Summer Solastice and IMHO, a nice upward move may commence around this time just like we had in 2009 as well as 2010]
OTM options must certainly be avoided even in May series just as the case was in April series as the odds are still stacked in favor of option writers with a potentially narrow range for Nifty for May 2012
Now that expiry woes are done, I will just highlight the fact that as far as May series is concerned, the crucial support band continues to be in the 5032-5092 band on closing basis for Nifty. From an investment perspective, such falls should be bought into on delivery basis and exposure directly to the index linked ETFs should be on the higher side IMHO
From a trading perspective, 5032-5092 will be an ideal bounce back band but upside still seems capped in the 5348-5408 region for May; on the downside, if 5032 is breached on closing basis, a further 144 odd points cut may be anticipated [though I personally feel that the odds of this happening are minimal - but just highlighting it so that one is aware]
The odds of Nifty hitting at least 5740 is very much realistic for 2012 if not more but the ascent may have to wait for the monsoon session to go through [21st June is Summer Solastice and IMHO, a nice upward move may commence around this time just like we had in 2009 as well as 2010]
OTM options must certainly be avoided even in May series just as the case was in April series as the odds are still stacked in favor of option writers with a potentially narrow range for Nifty for May 2012
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