EOD Analysis for 23rd March 2012 and Outlook For 26th March 2012

Happy Gudi Paadava / Ugadi to all

OI in Nifty futures hovering around 37 million within first 2 hours of open today; IMHO with expiry 4 trading sessions away, we should be able to see more OI in Nifty futures regardless of direction taken by Nifty; significant rationalization on futures premium finally.

Most likely, falls will be arrested in the 5177-5196 band or a shade lower at 5150-5166 i.e. the 200 DMA [50 as well as 100 EMAs have crossed over the 200 DMA and hence whilst the ultra-short term trend is down, the medium term trend seems to be on the upside - this is important from an investment point of view!!]

Breach of 5177-5196 band on closing basis will take down the support to 5032-5092 band and IMHO this should be a heavy bounce back zone; a close below 5032 will most likely trigger more falls and this may not happen in the next couple of weeks. Strength in Nifty to be confirmed only after taking out 5348 and then 5408 [2 consecutive closes above 5408 is the key for Nifty IMHO]

Likewise for BNF, strength only after 2 consecutive closes above 10400; weakness with 2 consecutive closes below 10150; interestingly both Nifty and BNF are not confirming strength/weakness on either side; 1 close in either direction is a false alarm usually and we have seen quite a bit of that this week

Just some images that I had prepared last night to fill in for Raghuji [though Im not in a position to put counts on minute degrees - that will have to wait for him to resume full throttle action after his much deserved vacation :D]

Illustration1: This is a continuation of the same image that I have been using since 28th Feb

Illustration2: Nifty Moving Averages

EOD Analysis For 22nd March 2012 and Outlook For 23rd March 2012

OI in Nifty futures was 34 million on open itself and another 1 million added after Europe opened


Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged and it Nifty is not able to cross over the 5400 hurdle; in fact once 5325-5348 zone was breached on downside, it was a free fall; it will be interesting to see the price action tomorrow; to the extent 5177-5196 holds out on closing basis, bulls may stage a comeback;

BNF 10150 pounded once and if it happens for 2 consecutive sessions, expect another free fall of 200 odd points! The fall in BNF is alarming because it shaved off much more than what is reflected on the ticker from the highs of the day!!

EOD Analysis For 21st March 2012 and Outlook For 22nd March 2012

OI in Nifty futures was at 35 million in the morning session and both NF and BNFfutures trading at significant premium. Critical levels and outlook remain unchanged from yesterday's post.

As mentioned earlier as well, 21st March to 23rd March is a critical period and the trend set here usually lasts for 2 weeks. Rather than rushing into positions, one should slowly build positions as critical levels are taken out i.e. 5348-5408 so on and so forth.

[One can go through the blog archives of February 2012 where there are 2 specific posts on important dates for 2012 and Nifty Support/Resistance levels]

EOD Analysis For 20th March 2012 and Outlook For 21st March 2012

OI in Nifty futures was 34 million on open today [until yesterday, I had only taken Mar & Apr series Nifty futures and from today until expiry, the May OI in Nifty futures will also be counted] No point in updating VIX factor because the ticker is not reflecting price action correctly IMHO

BNF did have some wild swings today; a huge surge of 100+ points within 15 minutes of open, a dramatic fall, followed by a meteoric rise and then another 80 odd points given up!

Critical Levels for both NF and BNF remain unchanged from yesterday; just updating the same Nifty image [posted initially on 28th Feb] with an additional trendline courtesy yesterday's fall

Confirmation for Bullish Hypothesis will be 2 consecutive closes above 5408
Confirmation for Potential trunctation of 5th wave will be 2 consecutive closes below 5177

Other Updates: Last night got the information that 2 of our virtual family members have been hospitalized. One is the 75 year-young RCG[ji] alias Lalu Prasad Yadav on Raghuji's blog - details of ailment not known to me

The other is a gentleman called Vishal Seth who will be operated on the brain today/tomorrow.
We all hope and pray that things go smoothly for both these gentlemen and their family members.

EOD Analysis For 19th March 2012 and Outlook For 20th March 2012

OI in Nifty futures came up by 2 million from previous session in the morning and another 2 million added with the falls to 34 odd million in the last hour; with this volume, upside of 150 points can come through and is sufficient for a further fall of 100-150 points also!

VIX data seems to be erring on my ticker a shade below 24! BNF, RIL, LnT, INFY were all in negative and hence I was looking for a VIX factor of at least 25. Significant premium on Nifty futures yet [and showing no signs of coming down!]

BNF almost touched its lower support below 10400 i.e. 10150 on expected lines; any strength in BNF can only be confirmed after 2 consecutive closes above 10400 after which 10800 will provide big hurdle. 2 consecutive closes below 10150 is DANGER for this counter......

Critical levels for Nifty remain unchanged; bulls need to take out 5348 ASAP and then post 2 consecutive closes above 5408 to regain strength; Just a bit of patience is needed until Wed/Thu; market will take a definite direction and provide some very large tradeable swings IMHO:D Expecting falls to be arrested within the 5177-5196 band on closing basis for this week. On the downside, if 5177 is breached on closing basis, then next potential support zone is at 5032-5092; closing below this can reverse almost the whole rally from lows of December!