Nifty opened on a mild note today and the volumes were pretty thin. So the volatility was relatively lower compared to the last 2 days. Banknifty led the charge in the morning but gave up on gains within a couple of hours. Some relief was seen due to short-covering but that didn't help much either. In fact it was Reliance pack that kept some steam despite Banknifty giving way today. There was profit booking in the auto majors with a little bit of short-covering.
Nifty is repeatedly failing to take out 5177-5225 on EOD basis and it is very critical for Nifty to cross-over 5225 on both EOD and Weekly basis tomorrow. However, with little support from Banknifty as well as other major counters, it will be a little difficult to achieve that tomorrow unless we get some positive cues overnight from US and some cheer from Europe in the morning tomorrow. Tomorrow is Friday and the markets are closed on Monday. A lot of positions will be either chopped due to margin calls or traders / fund-houses will clear their positions to avoid taking risk all the way to Tuesday.
The crucial levels for Nifty remain unchanged as of now
For Downside: 4950; 5020; 5092;5120;5177;5225
For Upside: 5240; 5280;5308;5348;5378;5408;
To the extent we do not close below 5092 on EOD basis tomorrow, expiry target remains at 5408+ levels for now. A close below 5092 will make Nifty vulnerable again to retest 4950 levels and make 5177-5225 a very critical zone to cross over. However, once 5225 taken out on EOD basis, 5308-5348 zone can be achieved pretty quickly.
Banknifty closing below 10400 is not a healthy sign at all. For sustained upside, Banknifty must take out 10400 and then 10660 zone as soon as possible. To the extent 10660 levels are not crossed over, it will start going back to 10250 levels against weak global cues.
The options premium are swiftly drying up and the high Put Premiums on 5200 PE / 5300 PE relative to spot values as against par values of deeply ITM Puts suggests that a couple of gap-up openings are highly likely during this series and fill up the gap-downs that we have. But I must reiterate that some pain is still remaining.
It is better to stick to futures at the moment and avoid options and for tomorrow, all positions must be ideally closed regardless of profit or loss. It is better to take fresh guard on Tuesday depending on market conditions.
Nifty is repeatedly failing to take out 5177-5225 on EOD basis and it is very critical for Nifty to cross-over 5225 on both EOD and Weekly basis tomorrow. However, with little support from Banknifty as well as other major counters, it will be a little difficult to achieve that tomorrow unless we get some positive cues overnight from US and some cheer from Europe in the morning tomorrow. Tomorrow is Friday and the markets are closed on Monday. A lot of positions will be either chopped due to margin calls or traders / fund-houses will clear their positions to avoid taking risk all the way to Tuesday.
The crucial levels for Nifty remain unchanged as of now
For Downside: 4950; 5020; 5092;5120;5177;5225
For Upside: 5240; 5280;5308;5348;5378;5408;
To the extent we do not close below 5092 on EOD basis tomorrow, expiry target remains at 5408+ levels for now. A close below 5092 will make Nifty vulnerable again to retest 4950 levels and make 5177-5225 a very critical zone to cross over. However, once 5225 taken out on EOD basis, 5308-5348 zone can be achieved pretty quickly.
Banknifty closing below 10400 is not a healthy sign at all. For sustained upside, Banknifty must take out 10400 and then 10660 zone as soon as possible. To the extent 10660 levels are not crossed over, it will start going back to 10250 levels against weak global cues.
The options premium are swiftly drying up and the high Put Premiums on 5200 PE / 5300 PE relative to spot values as against par values of deeply ITM Puts suggests that a couple of gap-up openings are highly likely during this series and fill up the gap-downs that we have. But I must reiterate that some pain is still remaining.
It is better to stick to futures at the moment and avoid options and for tomorrow, all positions must be ideally closed regardless of profit or loss. It is better to take fresh guard on Tuesday depending on market conditions.
No comments:
Post a Comment