EOD Analysis for 9th September 2011 and Outlook for 12th September 2011

Nifty was on a precarious note as we did have 2 consecutive closes above 5092 and the possibility of testing 5177-5225 was on the cards. However, I had also indicated that Friday factor may bring about profit booking. the adjusted close stands at 5059. Banknifty took some very steep cuts today and RIL did not support as well. The close below 5092 levels has ascertained that we are going to have a minimum retest of 4940 levels and ideally, we are going to retest the 4800 levels in the next 8 to 13 trading sessions [95% probability]

Should we jump on to shorts straight away - no not yet. 5168 - 5044 level drop was significant and we may see a relief retracement of this which still keeps probability of testing 5100-5110 levels open. If we get a close above  5092 on Monday / Tuesday, Nifty may just make 1 valiant attempt to take out 5177-5196 levels before heading down. Shorts should be opened close to 5100-5110 levels on Monday with a hedge of a Long position in the next series option. 20 point stop loss applies to the losing leg and trail the winning leg

On the downside, a second close below 5092 will confirm the downtrend with second confirmation coming with a close below 5035-5040 levels. This close will usher a minimum downside of 4940 and a high probable trade setup for retest of 4800 levels. Don't just short blindly but rather short in a staggered manner. As of now, safe to assume that upside is capped at 5225 levels and some short covering may come in at 4940 levels

With or without RBI stimulus, banks are all set to be belted by FIIs. Keep an eye on Banknifty. Upside is capped at 10100 levels for now and for RIL, upside is capped at 890 levels. At these levels shorts are very safe. A close below 9500 on Banknifty and a close below 825 on RIL will provide a very high confirmation signal for retesting 4800 levels. Hope all of you enjoyed the profits on the upside as well as the downside.

Global Markets Update will be uploaded tomorrow. Enjoy your weekend and thanks once again for visiting this blog and providing valuable feedback from time to time.

EOD Analysis for 8th September 2011 and Outlook for 9th September 2011

Nifty opened on a muted noted and was just drifting around aimlessly till Europe opened. As indicated yesterday, some upside was very much on the cards and once shorts started entering the system, the eventual upside came in. This is the 2nd consecutive close above 5092 and we had 2 retests of the 5150 levels. If the OI in Nifty futures stays like this only around 29.6 million on the upside movement of Nifty, we are still open for a retest of the 5177-5225 zone.

Banknifty did not participate as well as it did in the last session on the upside. However, it is already hovering around the 9900 mark and if global cues remain positive, it may finish the technical pullback to 10k levels or perhaps, a little more as well. On the other hand, as I mentioned yesterday, this entire upside over the last 5 trading sessions have taken place due to a technical pullback and relief short-covering. Don't go by analysts who say that there will be fresh supply on Banknifty beyond 10k-10100 levels etc. Profit booking will begin if and when we start hitting 10k levels on BNF now.

A close above 5177 will almost with certainty invite a retest of 5348, filling up all the gap-downs. There is nothing really to cheer about what is happening on the bourses. Nifty is still very much vulnerable to a retest of 4800 level within the next 13 to 21 trading sessions.

On stock specific action, Sun Pharma showed a high of 505 on spot price but this is the 3rd consecutive close below 500 level. Remains a prime shorting candidate as far as institutional investors are concerned. Base metals are slowly giving up on their gains.

The Rollar rates are temporarily sprucing up IT but it won't sustain for long. Gold prices are still high and continue to take support in the 1750-1800 zone for the very short term. These 2 factors are enough to trigger a sell at any point of time on the equity side of the markets. Too many global news events lined up but this may add some confusion in the direction of asset classes in the short term.

The outlook continues to remain bearish for equities but shorts should be opened from suitable resistance points or after a confirmation of breaking down a channel. Gold may soar and make a counter-trend rally but even for medium term USD 1450-1500 will remain an interim support. With risk of hyper-inflation looming around, there might a temporary boom on commodities.

The initial part of Buy on Dips on Nifty is done for this series. The mantra to trading success will now be 'Sell on Rise'. For tomorrow, there is absolutely no reason to initiate a fresh BUY; 5177-5225 remains the preferred shorting zone and one can continue with this short for a target of 100-150 points on the downside. Alternatively, if the close happens to be below 5092 on EOD tomorrow, it is a clear signal that the relief rally is over.

EOD Analysis for 7th September 2011 and Outlook for 8th September 2011

Nifty did show some strength today and the volumes were very good with OI in Nifty futures clocking 28.5 to 29.1 million throughout the day. Banknifty gained on the back of a good short-covering rally in Europe and as expected, gained over 200 points from the lows of this week. Some profit booking can be seen but if the cues remain good, the technical pull-back on Banknifty may go all the way to 10k levels but one must remember that this is just a technical pull-back.

The 5150 zone was briefly touched upon but there is still some more steam to retest 5177-5200 levels. One close above 5092 was needed to retest the 5150 levels. We closed over 5092 but also retested the 5150 levels. If the longs do decide to go on and Banknifty completes the technical pullback with Reliance and LnT supporting, it would a welcome relief rally for bulls. On the other hand, with just 2 more days to go, if profit booking starts coming in and we close below 5092 tomorrow, then more shorts will enter the system. This will imply a retest of 4950-5000 levels on Nifty and 9500-9600 levels on Banknifty.

For this week, the downside maybe limited to just 4950 levels and the upside for now seems to be capped at 5225 levels as an intra-day high. However, if we get a close above 5177, then we can expect all the gaps to be filled and some fresh longs taking us all the way to 5348 before Nifty decides to turn back. At all times, we need to remember that this upside is just a relief rally and the risk of retesting 4800 is very much on the cards within this series. VIX did cool down a bit but it is still hovering around 28 levels; unless VIX drops to sub-25 levels, choppy conditions will prevail.

There is no point in taking a fresh long position at this stage. Those who have been holding longs should just trail the position and we are slowly drifting into Sell on Rise territory. Hedging is very critical and one could either short an option of the same direction or use a little more margin and take an opposite position in the next series futures. 20 point stop loss to be strictly adhered to and then trail the winning leg.

On stock specific action, Sun Pharma has given 2 consecutive closes below 500 now. The retest of 450 is almost certain on this counter. Sesa Goa has so far shown a resilient pullback from 200 levels but is a counter vulnerable to retest 200 levels yet again [Whilst there are rumours about some bad news on Sun Pharma and Sesa Goa - it hardly matters; the weakness is there on the charts and regardless of what happens vis a vis patents and rights with Sun Pharma and mining issues, Cairn deal with Sesa Goa, the stock price will fluctuate solely on demand-supply and charts; charts are weak.....]

Automotive sector has started seeing some profit booking. Safe to ignore the news around fertilizer stocks like Chambal et al as the pullback is done and hardly any more steam left. Better to play with liquid counters and whilst ONGC showed some strength today, it will go down to 250 levels soon. [I normally don't recommend shorts on this counter as the lot size is 4000 and if the moves are caught well, fine but otherwise, it is a dangerous futures counter. 1 point move triggers a gain or loss of 4000 so better to play this via equity. for taking a hedged position, one needs a margin of 1 lakh to take positions like Long current series/Short next series or vice versa. Surprising that NSE and SEBI hasn't taken note of such discrepancies yet]

The reason why I am highlighting this is because I received a couple of mails from followers of this blog asking for a second opinion on playing this counter. If price is a barometer, then M&M has a lot size of 500 and that means logically, ONGC should have a lot size of 750 to 1000 IDFC should have a lot size of 1000 to 1250 only. Trading with a couple of counters is no doubt good but the pros and cons of picking up a counter, margin requirements etc need to be examined as well. So my suggestion is to stick to the top counters where the lot sizes are smaller, cost of carry, margin requirements are lower.

Gold prices are cooling off slightly and Dow futures for now are trading positive. FTSE may show strength upto 5325 levels before reversing the gains in the next 5 to 8 trading sessions. Hope all of you are taking advantage of both this blog and Raghuji's EW counts as well. Should there be any doubt regarding a position, please feel free to drop in a comment and ask. Depending on schedule will try to answer the same. Just ensure that when you take a position, it is hedged to protect your margins. If the losses are taken care of, the profits will follow in a trending market.

EOD Analysis for 6th September 2011 and Outlook for 7th September 2011

Nifty was in subdued territory from opening bell and VIX shot upto 30 levels today on opening itself and only cooled down to 28 after entering positive territory in the last 2 hours. The volumes were high with Nifty futures clocking an OI of 29.2 million to 29.8 million throughout the day. The 4940-4960 zone provided support for the second time today but the way it is being pounded is not a healthy sign at all. A very strong round of short-covering finally managed to get some premium on Nifty futures.

Unless 5092 is taken out on EOD basis, interim rises are attracting shorts. Some buying is coming in at 4940-4960 levels but it is only a matter of time before this level gives way. Automotive segments surprisingly are showing some signs of a pullback with Tata Motors, Maruti, M&M all seeing some buying [or perhaps short covering in futures]. Sun Pharma is turning out to be a laggard now and the close below 500 is a bad omen. 2 consecutive closes below 500 and the counter can go all the way back to retest 450 on spot price. ONGC showed some pullback but interim rises in ONGC are also shorting opportunities. For some more time, 250 may provide interim support [courtesy the scheduled FPO] but it is only a matter of time that this counter goes down big time. 

The crucial levels for this week remain as follows

For Downside: 4950 - 4880 - 4840
For Upside: 5020 - 5092 - 5120 - 5177

Unless Nifty gets a close above 5092, weakness will continue but most falls should be ideally arrested within the 4940-4960 zone for this week. [2 times it has supported already so that should be kept as an alerting point]

On the Upside, a close above 5092 will bring a retest of 5140 and 2 consecutive closes above 5092 will open Nifty for retest of 5177-5225 and if this zone is crossed over with volume and momentum, all gaps upto 5348 may be filled before Nifty resumes a downward journey.

On the Downside, a close below 4940 will make Nifty vulnerable to a retest of 4800 and 2 consecutive closes below 4940 will bring a retest of 4720 within 5 to 8 trading sessions from 2nd close below 4940.

For tomorrow 5110-5150 may provide the Sell Zone but this is not the time to create fresh Long Positions. Those with Long Positions should trail the existing position rather than create a fresh long position. Shorts should be hedged with a Short Put of near strike or an opposite position with the next series Nifty future. 

Panic in the market is visible with the high gold price. Nifty is due for some correction and retest 4800; the longer it takes to have this correction, the greater will be the impact of ensuing fall. Stay hedged with a position and trail the winning leg. Risk reward ratio is slowly tilting in favor of shorts but shorts should use appropriate levels before hitting the Sell button.

EOD Analysis For 5th September and Outlook For 6th September

Nifty opened with  a gap-down courtesy weak global cues and went back to test the support of 4950-4960 zone as expected. However, with OI of over 28.6 million in Nifty Futures, the falls were quickly bought into which represented a gain of more than 60 odd points which is indeed remarkable. VIX shot up today and crossed over 27 yet again. Banknifty took steep cuts and so did some of the major counters like Reliance.

Short covering was seen in Banknifty that helped the rise but the rise could not be sustained for long. What is critical though is that the Nifty is still maintaining the psychological figure of 5k levels on closing basis. Banknifty is marginally above 9600 levels and can do another 150-200 points to the upside from here and if Reliance, LnT support then we should be able to see 5100+ levels on Nifty within a couple of trading sessions.

The crucial levels for this week remain as follows

For Downside: 4950 - 4880 - 4840
For Upside: 5020 - 5092 - 5120 - 5177

Unless Nifty gets a close above 5092, weakness will continue but most falls should be ideally arrested within the 4940-4960 zone for this week.

On the Upside, a close above 5092 will bring a retest of 5140 and 2 consecutive closes above 5092 will open Nifty for retest of 5177-5225 and if this zone is crossed over with volume and momentum, all gaps upto 5348 may be filled before Nifty resumes a downward journey.

On the Downside, a close below 4940 will make Nifty vulnerable to a retest of 4800 and 2 consecutive closes below 4940 will bring a retest of 4720 within 5 to 8 trading sessions from 2nd close below 4940.

Still difficult to recommend a Long / Short without a hedge. Long Positions in Nifty should be hedged with a Short Call and vice versa for Shorts i.e. Short Position should be hedged with Short Put. The covered Call/Put option is being suggested to protect the risk of losing time value in the options premium. Strict Stop Loss of 20 points to be applied to the losing leg and continue with the winning leg via Trailing Stop Losses.

For tomorrow, 4950-4960 zone will be the Buy Zone and 5092-5110 will be the Sell Zone on Nifty spot.
Hedge For Long will be Short 5000 CE 1:1 ratio and Hedge For Short will be Short 5100 PE 1:1 ratio

Gold prices are still high and may retest highs created in 1912 zone before correcting. Silver spot tried a crossover of 43.3 but has not been able to hold on to it. If crisis like situation prevails, this divergence between Silver and Gold price will continue. A close above 1912 on Comex gold will usher 2000 on spot price but eventual target of gold is 1450-1500 on spot price and this is a counter-trend rally led by fear.

Corrective counter-trend rallies do have a tendency to register new highs and in such cases, the ensuing correction is even more sharp. Rise in silver can be used to short outright via 3 month forward contracts. For Gold, better not to trade for sometime as the risks are tremendous on either side. 

Global Market Updates / Special Coverage For Indian Bourses - 2nd September 2011

The global market scenario is getting more and more grim and as of now this is where we stand starting from US

US: The top for now seems to be in place with the May 2nd high of 12,873; however, we can expect 2 more attempts towards the 12k levels via relief rallies, once in September and once towards Christmas/ThanksGiving before the eventual collapse takes place. The target destination is a minimum retest of the lows that surfaced after the Lehman Brothers crisis. For those looking to use the opportunity to short Dow futures, now listed on NSE, it is indeed a good time. As highlighted earlier, the 3 critical levels are 11875, 12000, 12200. Trades on Dow futures should be initiated only by people who follow the international markets and have a fair clue of what constitutes the index and only then take the position. Unlike Dow futures on other exchanges, there are no protective Calls or Puts against a position taken as one can do with Nifty.

Whilst the dollar is sinking temporarily, being the reserve currency of the world, it is bound to stage a comeback and safe to assume that the downside in Dollar Index is limited to 70-72 levels with a target of 81 in the next 6 to 8 months. Consumer confidence is dropping in US and the debt ceiling increase is only delaying the inevitable. The S&P ratings will have no significant impact over smart money's preference for safe haven currencies which for now is restricted to the Swiss Franc. However, institutional investors will flock to the dollar to fulful dollar obligations with the exchanges. Volumes on the US bourses are dropping sharply and one of the banking darlings in terms of stock price resilience Goldman Sachs has also cracked pretty well from previous highs. Eventual target for Goldman is sub-50 levels. Jobs are not being added at all in the economy and as unofficial reports have it, job cuts are being discussed in a lot of service sectors like banking/financial services, consulting or for that matter even some of the law firms.

Unlike the previous instance in the 2007-2008 timeline when Turnaround Management firms were actively scouting for potential companies for buyouts, the optimism is remarkably lower this time. A lot of Turnaround Management professionals would rather wait for at least a 40% correction more in some of the attractive targets and keep a close eye on Chapter 11 candidates before initiating a 'Buy'. [A lot of details into these aspects are available in the Linked In Group called Turnaround Management. Those interested in global economics and finer aspects of Turnaround Management must join this LinkedIn Group]

UK: The top is very much in place with the rally above 6k in Jan. The pullback to 5400 levels this week after sinking to sub-5k levels once is remarkable. However, the picture is still bleak and will eventually fall to sub4k levels next year. One more countertrend rally to 64k was expected but sealed completely when 5550 was taken out on EOD basis. Already there are bear calls floating around calling for sub 2k levels on FTSE but that seems too far fetched for now. The banking system in UK too is on the verge of a collapse yet again and smart money does not want to buy before the post Lehman Brothers levels are not attained. The action is restricted to FnO in most cases.

In terms of day to day business, retailers are getting squeezed on margins as input costs are soaring but there is no way to pass on the price hikes to the end consumers. The commodity bubble will probably end up making some of the smaller retail players go bust and bring about consolidation in the retail space [One can refer to Nadeem Walayat's detailed outlook for UK economy in the Market Oracle site, link to which is given in the homepage of this blog]

PIIGS: Both Sovereign Debt Yield and Credit Default Swap premiums are on the rise. 3 countries are already in junk status. The critical level on sovereign debt yield of Italy and Spain will be 6%. Spain might just end up delaying the inevitable for some more time. With an election underway and an almost near certain victory of the current opposition party, there is reason to believe that Spain will manage to delay the inevitable. Case in point, to ensure that things don't go awry for Spain so soon, the Finance Ministry announced austerity plans well in advance and even the opposition agreed for the same and Spain was lauded for its 'proactive' steps by ECB early this week! The barometer of Spain's crisis will be the yield on the Sovereign bond and stock price of Banco Santander. With 1.3 trillion dollars in Assets [around 50% of which are toxic as per some estimates]  this counter will lead the fall in Ibex. [Investors must take note of the fact that the yields of 6% being discussed here are for the short term paper sold in primary markets. The long term yields are inching towards 20% due to their toxic nature in the grey markets which will only accelerate the fall next year when these become headlines]

It is not going to be the end of the world by any standards. Consumption is still the key and will in all probability make resources and human capital more competitive in the  global job market as far as people are concerned. Only those living in the comfort of supremacy of fiat currencies and an illusion that social security will take care of challenges will suffer. Marking the first precedent in this is Portugal. With minimum wages now at EUR 400 levels for blue collar workers, a lot of factories are reconsidering placing orders into Asian or Latin American suppliers. With proximity sourcing options in Portugal, the total cost structure is beginning to tilt against low cost sweat shops of 'emerging' economies. On the other hand, countries like Turkey and Morocco are also offering good sourcing options and the concept of 'proximity sourcing' will gain a lot of momentum as we move into a prolonged dull phase for the next few months.

As far as Germany is concerned, the Bund will continue to be the European safe haven equivalent of Europe though the DAX is all set to collapse. Every interim rise now is a shorting opportunity. Likewise, the Swiss Franc will gain even more credibility as a safe haven currency but the stock market will portray a different picture [the Swiss index is already over 20% lower than its 2010 high!] Here, one can see a renewed activity of industrial production and engineering and a lot of consolidation in the SME space.

As far as India is concerned, there is no way it can shy away from the impact of global economic scenario in the short to medium term. However, even with a pessimistic 7 to 8% growth in GDP, it is a significant growth especially considering that a lot of other economies are collapsing. With an average per capita GDP of USD 1200, it cannot get worse as a country [that the middle class will receive a double whammy in the form of decreasing net worth, salary freeze and still inflation is a separate issue. The common man of India always has had to grip with this situation and unfortunately, there is no place to hide from this except to make sure some cash is always available and ready to be deployed into suitable opportunities]. Margin calls on both stocks and commodities on other bourses will force FIIs to press the Sell button and gain access to cash

This is one of the best opportunities for Indian investors who missed the party in the 2008-2009 crisis and resurgence. For long term investments, the 2500 - 4500 levels on Nifty [8k to 14k on Sensex] are all excellent buying opportunities. Rather than jumping into the 'Buy' wagon on every dip, one should use panic selling as an opportunity to accumulate for the long term. Whilst the decoupling theory is still a myth, things are changing for sure as far as emerging economies are concerned. The domestic consumption story is still strong and if the crisis does come in as expected on the western bourses, the consumption story will provide a complete fillip. Today only a fraction of the Indian populace buys exotic gadgets, items, services of the western world at a premium. The current crisis will start providing excellent opportunities for a larger proportion of the Indian population to access services at low prices [and the western suppliers would be more than willing to oblige] and hence the long term story is intact.

Whilst I do concede that my call for a potential new high this Diwali went bust big time with all time and price targets getting violated, the longer term story is intact and 2014 will be a year to celebrate. Nifty and Sensex are here to stay and they won't go to ZERO! Maybe this time Sensex will chalk a low lower than 8k which we saw post Lehman Brothers; so what - it represents another fantastic buying opportunity with a clear mandate of more than doubling if not tripling in the subsequent recovery. Prerequisite to such conditions is to ensure there is free cash available to deploy them [rather than taking loans on gold or other securities/assets which was seen as a rampant phenomenon last year when we were heading towards Diwali]

Outlook for Gold and Silver: Silver has long ago topped out and as of now safe to assume that gold also topped out at 1925 levels. A short term flight to safety may be seen and above 1925 per ounce, Gold can rally all the way to 2000 and 2200 levels, it is nearing a top. Just as margin requirements were raised on speculative longs on silver last year, 2 consecutive margin hikes on speculative longs on gold have increased margin calls by over 40% on gold now. Eventual target for gold is a minimum of 1450-1500 and whether it falls from current levels, 1925 levels or 2k levels, the fall is going to be fast and furious. Bolstering my case for gold is the divergence in the price of silver. Whilst gold pulled back remarkably after the 8% collapse within 2 trading sessions, silver has not even managed to take out 43 on EOD basis. Currently silver is taking support at the 41.5 to 42 zone but once silver closes below 38, 32 to 33 will come in a jiffy.

Every rise in silver is a potential shorting candidate [please take a look at the conversion of units from Comex to MCX levels and rollar exchange rates as my analysis of Gold and Silver is always based on Comex rates in USD]

To summarize: DJIA futures and FTSE futures [coming soon on NSE] are excellent shorting candidates from forthcoming countertrend highs. Nifty is still a good trading candidate and investment BUY opportunities will be coming in a jiffy. Do not panic - if you take a 3 year horizon, some excellent wealth creation opportunities are coming your way. On the banking side, don't rush to buy SBI so soon. ICICI has already shown dismal performance post acquisition of BOR and a similar effect will be seen on SBI mergers with SBx divisions. These 2 counters are worth investment only when ICICI falls below 450 on spot price and SBI falls below 1250. These are the levels when I personally will be buying these stocks. As far as other counters are concerned, I will certainly share my ideas if I come across any. My personal allocation will be highest to Nifty Bees and BankBees. I will be increasing my allocations for these counters with each fall.

EOD Analysis for 2nd September and Outlook For 5th September

Nifty futures had healthy volumes today with the OI in Nifty futures consistently around the 26 million OI mark throughout the day. Banknifty futures showed a high of 9650 levels at one point of time though most of the gains were given up in the middle session. Except for the bad start on 26th August into September series, so far, the retracement has been remarkable.

Further movements will now depend on global cues as well as political and sentiment outlook on the Indian bourses. As far as banking counters are concerned, a technical pullback to 10k on Banknifty is not ruled out at all. It may take some time for proper assessment of the aftermath of SBx mergers with SBI to sink in. For the short term, there is no value unlocking but value erosion as the fixed cost structures will be badly affected with these mergers and NPAs will actually surge. For a fully optimal NIMs improvement and effective operational efficiency that helps reduce operational and fixed costs, it will take at least 3 years.[We have already seen how ICICI Bank has been struggling with its banking acquisition last year]. As an investor, one should wait for SBI to now come to 1000-1200 levels to accumulate with a 2-3 year horizon.

Unless 5092 is taken out on EOD basis, it is very unlikely to see fresh longs in the system. Finally the weekly losing streak has been snapped for once and we are still above the psychologically important 5k mark. With the results season coming in and sudden spurt in spot gold again to 1850 levels, there is extreme panic as far as smart money is concerned. The dull market breadth across all bourses is also hinting at how most retail and HNI traders have given up at least temporarily.

The next major rally will again be led by banking only followed by automotive and pharmaceutical segments. Short term, better to go with the trading on indices and 5100 looks pretty much achievable now. Above 5177 if crossed over with good volumes, Nifty opens for a retest of 5348 but that will need 2 consecutive closes above 5177 with healthy volumes. The broad range for now still remains 4690 to 5177 for now and one can consider opening shorts at 5100 levels with Short 5100 PE as the hedge 1:1 ratio. Strategy would be to maintain a 20 point stop loss on the losing leg and riding the winning leg.

On Banknifty, one can consider opening shorts as close to 10k levels as possible and preferably with some margin and the shorts should be via a a 3 month forward contract. On Dow, 11875, 12000, and 12200 are critical resistances. First round of shorts on Dow should be opened as close to 12k as possible, again with a 3 month forward contract. Second round of shorts would be closer to 12200 or below 11400. Target is 9500 for this futures contract. [Only for high margin players and those who can hold a position without getting bogged down with the news, noise and temporary red on the counter]

Stock specific action, one can see good relief rallies on the automotive counters which is not surprising, both technically and fundamentally. The festive season will mark some optimism for the automotive segment on both domestic and international demand. The tops are in place but shorts should be opened at comfortably high levels.

Hope all had a profitable week and a good festive break. For me personally, this week was not very good in trade because I did not follow up on my positions with proper discipline and allowed greed to take over a couple of winning positions. Again goes to show how analysis and trades are 2 totally different aspects. The fine tuned EW counts and projected path will be updated over the weekend out here and on Raghuji's blog.

Until then, enjoy the weekend and festivities.